American Gothic Architecture

For only the antique style of architecture is conceived in a purely objective spirit; the Gothic style is more in the subjective spirit. American Gothic architecture was the outcome of a way of thought, the product of a special kind of imagination. Every one will easily be able to see clearly how from the fundamental thought and the peculiarities of Gothic architecture, there arises that mysterious and hyperphysical character which is attributed to it. It principally arises from the fact that here the arbitrary has taken the place of the purely rational, which makes itself known as the thorough adoption of the means to the end.The many things that are really aimless, but yet are so carefully perfected, raise the assumption of unknown, unfathomed, and secret ends, i. e. , give the appearance of mystery. On the other hand, the brilliant side of Gothic churches is the interior; because here the effect of the groined vaulting borne by slender, crystalline, aspiring pillars, raised high a loft, and, all burden having disappeared, promising eternal security, impresses the mind; while most of the faults which have been mentioned lie upon the outside.In antique buildings the external side is the most advantageous, because there we see better the support and the burden; in the interior, on the other hand, the flat roof always retains something depressing and prosaic. For the most part, also, in the temples of the ancients, while the outworks were many and great, the interior proper was small. An appearance of sublimity is gained from the hemispherical vault of a cupola, as in the Pantheon, of which, therefore, the Italians also, building in this style, have made a most extensive use.What determines this is, that the ancients, as southern peoples, lived more in the open air than the northern nations who have produced the Gothic style of architecture. Whoever, then, absolutely insists upon Gothic architecture being accepted as an essential and authorized style may, if he i s also fond of analogies, regard it as the negative pole of architecture, or, again, as its minor key.With the recent explosion of Gothic criticism, scholars have failed to juxtapose Gothic novels and dramas with archival architectural sources to explore the interrelationship between literature and architecture in the United States in the first half of the nineteenth century. The scholars who have rescued the Gothic novel from literary history's dust heap have provided cultural historians with a base from which to examine the sweeping influence of this significant literary genre.In the United States, Gothic novels and Scott's historical romances (which were inspired by Gothic pioneers Walpole and Radcliffe), had an enormous impact on architecture in the period between 1800 and 1850. The groundwork in Gothic literary scholarship allows us to move beyond literature to examine how the Gothic seeps into other forms of artistic creation. One of the earliest American architects to enjoy G othic novels was Benjamin Henry Latrobe (1764-1820).Although born in Great Britain and educated in Europe, Latrobe immigrated to the United States at the age of thirty-one, arriving in March 1796. About three months after relocating to Virginia, Latrobe wrote in his journal that he found Radcliffe's descriptions of buildings so â€Å"successful† that he â€Å"once endeavored to plan the Castle of Udolpho from Radcliffe's account of it and found it impossible† . Latrobe began experimenting with Gothic architectural forms for residential design in the United States in 1799.Latrobe's Gothic work includes Sedgeley (built for William Crammond near Philadelphia in 1799 and considered the first Gothic Revival house in the United States); the Baltimore Cathedral design (unexecuted; 1805); Christ Church in Washington, DC (1806-07); the Bank of Philadelphia (1807-08); and St. Paul's in Alexandria, Virginia (1817) (see photos). But, overall, Latrobe's Gothic output pales in compa rison to his rational neoclassical efforts such as the Bank of Pennsylvania (1799-1801). His Gothic Revival designs are symmetrical with superficial Gothic detailing.For example, Sedgeley is a geometric form Gothicized by the placement of pointed arch windows in the pavilions that protrude from the corners of the house. Despite this Gothic touch, there is little mystery or surprise in store for the observer of Latrobe's Gothic creations. Although he clearly read Radcliffe's books and was quite possibly influenced by them, he did not translate the mysterious, rambling architectural spaces of her stories into his own architecture. Other American architects, too, dabbled in Gothic Revival design before the 1830s. Some notable examples include Maxmillan Godefroy's St.Mary's Seminary in Baltimore (1806); Charles Bulfinch's Federal Street Church in Boston (1809); and the unexecuted design for Columbia College (1813) by James Renwick Sr. , engineer and father of the architect James Renwick . Daniel Wadsworth, who designed for himself a Gothic Revival villa called Monte Video (c. 1805-1809) near Hartford, Connecticut, explained that, to him, the Gothic style was not inherently menacing as are the castles and convents of Gothic novels: â€Å"There is nothing in the mere forms or embellishments of the pointed style [†¦ ] in the least adapted to convey to the mind the impression of Gothic Gloom† .His house bears out this belief; Gothic details appear as an afterthought, a decorative motif rather than a programmatic agenda. It was not until the 1830s and 1840s that American Gothic Revival architecture came of age. The most prominent designer of Gothic residences in this period was Davis. Davis was born in New York City in 1803 and, during his boyhood, lived in New Jersey and New York. When he was sixteen, he moved to Alexandria, Virginia, to learn a trade with his older brother Samuel. Davis worked as a type compositor in the newspaper office.Besides work, his four years at Alexandria were filled with two of his favourite activities: reading and acting. An amateur actor who performed in several plays while he was in Virginia, Davis was a voracious reader as well. His two pocket diaries from this period, preserved at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York, are filled with youthful exuberance. Often, Davis would begin an entry with an illustration from a text, which would then be excerpted in his own handwriting. Among the dramas that he read and illustrated were Maturin's Bertram: or the Castle of St.Aidobrand and Heinrich Zschokke's Abadilino. Maturin was an Irish Gothic novelist and dramatist who corresponded with an encouraging Scott. After reading Maturin's drama Bertram, Scott wrote that the character of Bertram had a â€Å"Satanic dignity which is often truly sublime† . Starring Edmund Kean, Bertram opened on 9 May 1816 at the Drury Lane Theatre in London, with the support of Lord Byron, who was impressed with the play. In one of his pocket diaries, Davis made an illustration of the play's first act, showing a ship tossed on a stormy sea in view of a Gothic convent.The setting of the play is quintessentially Gothic from the â€Å"rock-based turrets† of the convent to the moonlit â€Å"terrassed rampart† of the castle of Aldobrand. Davis copied an excerpt from the play into his diary and as the budding actor included Bertram in his list of recitations. While he was a youth in Alexandria, Davis engaged in amateur theatricals and became interested in stage design. He dreamed of becoming a professional actor. Davis's illustration filters the Shakespearean scene through contemporary Gothic, emphasizing the mysterious flicker of the nightstand candle and the inky blackness of unknowable architectural spaces.At the age of twenty, Davis moved to New York City, and his fascination with the theatre continued. In the evenings, he frequented the theatre and was on the free list at both the Park The ater and the Castle Garden Theater in 1826 and 1828. He also expressed his love of drama in his artistic work. In 1825, he completed a study for a proscenium featuring Egyptian columns and Greek bas-relief sculpture and numerous portraits of actors in character, including â€Å"Brutus in the Rostrum† and â€Å"Mr. Kemble as Roma†. That so early in his life Davis was fascinated with the theatre is significant to his later Gothic Revival architectural creations.The dramatic images he drew for his youthful diaries display his acute interest in stage design and scenography. Indeed, Gothic Revival architecture is inherently theatrical, a quality often commented upon by architecture critics. Davis often used trompe-l'oeil materials to create theatrical effects, substituting plaster for stone. Davis's houses, then, become stage sets, in which the owners' mediaeval fantasies, inspired by Gothic romances, can take flight. While still in Alexandria, Davis's sensible older brothe r bristled at what he perceived to be the younger Davis's useless pastime of reading Gothic books.Later in life, Davis wrote to William Dunlap about himself in the third person for Dunlap's History of the Rise and Progress of the Arts of Design in the United States: â€Å"Like another Franklin, strongly addicted to reading, he limited himself to the accomplishment of a fixed task, and being a quick compositor, he would soon complete it, and fly to his books, but not like Franklin, to books of science and useful learning, but to works of imagination, poetry, and the drama; whence, however, he imbibed a portion of that high imaginative spirit so necessary to constitute an artist destined to practise in the field of invention†.Davis's brother condemned such reading and turned Davis's attention to â€Å"history, biography and antiquities, to language and the first principles of the mathematics†. The architectural allure of Gothic literature fascinated Davis. As a young man , Davis was known to â€Å"pass hours in puzzling over the plan of some ancient castle of romance, arranging the trap doors, subterraneous passages, and drawbridges, as pictorial embellishment was the least of his care, invention all his aim†.Any Gothic novel of the late eighteenth century may have been the subject of his artistic dreaming, but most likely he is referring here to either Walpole's The Castle of Otranto or Radcliffe's The Mysteries of Udolpho, two of the most popular and influential of the Gothic novels. Davis's catalogue of books shows that he owned both books. The image depicts a partly ruinous labyrinthine space with a multitude of pointed arches leading to mysterious staircases (perhaps inspired by Giovanni Battista Piranesi's Carceri). Light filters in through barred windows.This drawing shows his early interest in the Gothic underworld, which is described in detail in The Castle of Otranto. The castle of Otranto (see photo) contains intricate subterranean passages that lead from the castle to the church of St. Nicholas, and through which the virtuous Isabella is chased by the lustful Manfred. Scott cannot be considered a Gothic novelist in the same way that his predecessors Walpole and Radcliffe are. Scott's genre is historical romance, but the influence of the Gothic is omnipresent in his work.From his earliest days and throughout his life, Scott read tales of terror. In 1812, after the success of his three poems and before he began writing his Waverley novel series, Scott purchased 110 acres, upon which he built his elaborate Gothic castle (1812-1815; enlarged in 1819). He named his new home Abbotsford after the monks of Meirose Abbey. The architect was William Atkinson. Abbotsford has been described as â€Å"an asymmetrical pile of towers, turrets, stepped gables, oriels, pinnacles, crenelated parapets, and clustered chimney stacks, all assembled with calculated irregularity†.Visitors flocked to Abbotsford to see the autho r and his residence first-hand, and, according to Thomas Carlyle, Abbotsford soon â€Å"became infested to a great degree with tourists, wonder-hunters, and all that fatal species of people†. Architectural historians often praise Strawberry Hill for introducing asymmetry into British domestic design and historicism into the Gothic Revival. But it is also important for another reason: the castle inspired Walpole to write his Gothic novel The Castle of Otranto in 1764.In A Description of the Villa of Mr. Horace Walpole, Walpole writes that Strawberry Hill is â€Å"a very proper habitation of, as it was the scene that inspired, the author of The Castle of Otranto†. One June morning, Walpole awoke from a dream: â€Å"I had thought myself in an ancient castle (a very natural dream for a head filled, like mine, with Gothic story) and that, on the uppermost bannister of a great staircase, I saw a gigantic hand in armor† (Early 88). That evening, Walpole sat down to wri te The Castle of Otranto.The setting of the story, as Walpole tells us in the preface, is â€Å"undoubtedly laid in some real castle†; indeed, as W. S. Lewis has shown, the rooms at Strawberry Hill and those in the pages of The Castle of Otranto correspond. Read by British and American readers alike, The Castle of Otranto enjoyed popularity long after Walpole's death in 1797. About the castle, Gilmor wrote: Tis in the most beautiful Gothic (light) style. Much cut up into small rooms, none, except the long picture gallery being large. Some of the ceilings beautifully gilded others beautifully fitted in wood or scagliola.But all things, wainscottings, – door-fireplaces – all Gothic. [†¦ ] These same rooms crammed – most literally crammed – with chef d'oeuvres of Antient and modern paintings, statuary; sarcophaguses, Bronzes and silver carvings of Benvenuto Cellini and others. [†¦ ] In this superb cabinet of curiosities for such the Gothic c astle deserves to be called, I strolled delighted. On 21 September 1832, not long after Gilmor's return in late 1830 or early 1831, Scott died. Two weeks later, on 5 October 1832, Davis makes his first notes on Glen Ellen in his day book.Perhaps Gilmor may have conceived of Glen Ellen as a tribute or romantic memorial to his genial host at Abbotsford. Indeed, as William Pierson has shown, the plans of Abbotsford and Glen Ellen both display a progression from left to right of octagonal corner turret to octagonal bay to square corner tower. But Abbotsford is not the only source for Glen Ellen. Gilmor was very impressed with the rococo Gothic he saw at Strawberry Hill, and the interior decoration of Walpole's residence becomes the inspiration for the exterior ornamentation at Glen Ellen.The battlements, pinnacles, towers, and pointed arch windows all recall Strawberry Hill, and the long rectangular parlour mirrors Walpole's mediaeval gallery. Both Abbotsford and Strawberry Hill are sit ed along rivers; it is significant, then, that Gilmor chose a site for Glen Ellen on the Gunpowder River, twelve miles north of Baltimore. While Town, Davis, and Gilmor were clearly indebted to Walpole and Atkinson, Glen Ellen is quite unlike anything that had come before it in American architecture.Most striking is its adoption of the complete Gothic program: it is asymmetrical in plan and elevation; its rooms are of disproportionate sizes; its ornamentation is both whimsical and reliant on recognizable mediaeval architectural forms. Glen Ellen is certainly not a repetition of Benjamin Henry Latrobe's and Daniel Wadsworth's earlier forays into the Gothic Revival style for domestic architecture. Unlike Sedgeley and Monte Video, where Gothic Revival ornament appears as an afterthought, Glen Ellen wears its mediaeval styling in a more assertive manner.Here Town and Davis enlisted the picturesque element of surprise; the beholder of Glen Ellen views a shifting facade with unexpected to wer protrusions and heavily ornamented bay windows. Although light and airy Glen Ellen lacks the gloom of Radcliffe's architectural spaces, the architects do create a villa in which the element of surprise is paramount. What is most significant about Glen Ellen is its conception as a place of fantasy, a literary indulgence to whet the Gothic appetite of its well-travelled owner.That Glen Ellen imitates the facade of Abbotsford or the interior ornamentation of Strawberry Hill is important; but more momentous is the idea of Glen Ellen as a retreat into the mediaeval world popularized by Gothic novels and historical romances. But Glen Ellen is Gothic fiction transformed into stone, a constant reminder of its owner's preferred reading material. With Glen Ellen, Gilmor pays homage to his favourite writers, thus participating in the cult of the Gothic author. Although he is the first, Gilmor will not be the last to yield to his literary fantasies by creating a permanent reminder of his Go thic passion.Influenced by Gothic novels and historical romance s, American writers James Fenimore Cooper and Washington Irving Gothicized their houses (Otsego Hall and Sunnyside, respectively) after visiting Gothic sites in Europe. After Glen Ellen, Davis went on to design numerous Gothic Revival cottages and villas, including his masterpiece, Lyndhurst in Tarrytown, New York (1838; 1865). Why were American architects, artists, and their clients so interested in mediaeval architecture? Their reading habits tell us a great deal.Mediaeval architecture plays a crucial role in Gothic novels and historical romances, leading some curious readers to visit mediaeval and Gothic Revival architectural sites related to their favourite novels. That American Gothic Revival architecture was closely related to the fictional works of writers such as Radcliffe and Scott is highlighted by a nineteenth-century observer's comments on a Gothic Revival building in New York City. Thomas Aldrich Bailey wro te in 1866 about the University of the City of New York (now New York University; original building demolished) on Washington Square: â€Å"There isn't a more gloomy structure outside of Mrs.Radcliff's [sic] romances, and we hold that few men could pass a week in these lugubrious chambers, without adding a morbid streak to their natures – the genial immates [sic] to the contrary notwithstanding†. Usually, though, the Gothic Revival buildings constructed in the United States in this period were anything but gloomy. Like Strawberry Hill, Davis's designs were light and airy; delicate rather than dark and massive (Davis does begin to experiment more with fortified castle designs in the 1850s).As Janice Schimmelman has argued, Scott's novels recast the Gothic architectural style, moving it away from the barbarism associated with the Middle Ages and toward a more domestic ideal. An American author who wrote at the same time as Scott sums it up nicely by saying, â€Å"A cast le without a ghost is fit for nothing but to live in†. Certain Gothic work in the Boston neighborhood, by Solomon Willard and Gridley Bryant, has a kind of brutal power because of its simple granite treatment.But these early gray and lowering edifices, despite their pointed windows and their primitive tracery, are scarcely within the true Gothic tenor. That remained almost unknown in this country until suddenly, between 1835 and 1850, it was given abundant expression in the work of three architects -Richard Upjohn, James Renwick, and Minard Lafever. Upjohn, in Trinity Church, set a tradition for American church architecture which has hardly died yet; and Renwick, in Grace Church in New York (see photo), showed the exquisite richness that Gothic could give.Minard Lafever's work is more daring, more original, and less correct, but in the Church of the Holy Trinity in Brooklyn (see photo), only slightly later than Trinity and Grace, he achieved a combination of lavish detail, ima ginative variations on Gothic themes, and a general effectiveness of proportion and composition which make it one of the most successful, as it is certainly the most American, of all these early Gothic Revival churches.Yet even in these, correct as they were in detail, beautiful in mass and line, there was always a certain sense of unreality. The old tradition of integrity in structure, on which the best Greek Revival architects had so insistently based their work, was breaking down. Romanticism, with its emphasis on the effect and its comparative lack of interest in how the effect was produced, was sapping at the whole integral basis of architecture.These attractive Gothic churches were, all of them, content with lath-and-plaster vaults. In them the last connections between building methods and building form disappeared, and in their very success they did much to establish in America the disastrous separation between engineering and architecture which was to curse American building for two generations.The best of the American Gothic work remains in its simpler, its less ostentatious, monuments: the little churches in which wood was allowed frankly to be itself, as in the small frame chapels which Upjohn designed for country villages and distant mission stations; and the frank carpenter Gothic of the picturesque high-gabled cottages which rose so bewitchingly embowered in heavy trees along many of our Eastern village streets. The polychrome Victorian Gothic of England also became a brief American fashion.A number of architects, especially in New York and later in early Chicago, fell under the spell of Ruskin's persuasive writing, and sought as he did to create a modern, freely designed, inventive, nineteenth-century Gothic. But here also the strings that bound America and England seemed too tenuous to hold for long; and in spite of the occasional appealing successes of the style – such as the old National Academy of Design with its black-and-white marbl e front, designed by Peter B.Wight, and some of Renwick's city houses – the Victorian Gothic was doomed in America to swift disintegration into the cheapest and most illogical copying of its most obvious mannerisms, and a complete negation of its essential foundations. It became in a sense a caricature, to be rapidly swallowed up in the confusion of eclecticism which the last quarter of the century brought with it. If we might sum up French Gothic as architecture of clear and structural power, and English as the architecture of personalized rural charm, American Gothic would be the architecture of experimental and dynamic zest.American Gothic architecture was much more than the solution of building problems; it was also the expression of a new America that had been gradually coming into being – a new America which was the result of the gradual decay of the feudal system under the impact of trade, prosperity, and the growth of national feeling. The Gothic Revival in Ame rica was more a matter of intellectual approach than of architectural work. The sudden new enthusiasm for medieval work made all America passionately aware of its amazing architectural wealth, and also acutely conscious of the disintegration which threatened ruin to so many of the medieval structures.Nowhere did the Gothic Revival have a greater and a more revolutionary effect than in America, which had given it its first expression, for nowhere else were the forces behind it so irresistibly strong. In Germany, nationalism had led the architects of the romantic age into the byways of Romanesque and of Renaissance. In France, the strong classic traditions of the Ecole des Beaux Arts held firm against all the attacks of the romanticists and gave, at least to the official work, the requisite classic stamp.But, in America, religious fervor, so closely allied to the desires of the court and the government, made the drive toward Gothic design irrepressible, and there was no academic and c lassic tradition powerful enough to withstand it. Furthermore, the movement was blessed with extremely brilliant and articulate writers, who had the gift not only of interesting the specialist but of moving the general population. Gothic architecture was best now because it was the most Christian, later because it was the most creative and least imitative, then again because it was the most honest – whatever that might mean.The religious facets of the movement had an even greater importance. The whole American church was exercised more and more about the fundamental problems of ritualism and historical tradition. The most important ecclesiastical thinkers were reacting against the routine secularism of the eighteenthcentury church, demanding not only greater seriousness and a more intense devotion to Christian ideals, but also expressing their conviction that the medieval church had been a vital force and medieval devotion a vivid experience that had been subsequently lost, a nd that therefore the easiest way to reform the church was by a return to medievalism.Of the religious controversies these ideas aroused it is not necessary to particularize. Also important is the fact that everywhere these religious controversies focused attention on medieval church architecture, and that there was the closest relationship between architecture and ritual. Therefore, the theory went, if it was necessary to return to the medieval conception of Christianity, it was equally essential to return to medievalism in church design. There more subtle factor behind the Gothic Revival in architecture.The word â€Å"romanticism† has accumulated so many different meanings in the course of a century of criticism that it is necessary to be more precise. Behind the new interest in medieval architecture went a search for emotional expression which was a new thing. Romanticism means many more things than mere antiquarianism, for from the point of view of a mere turn to the past the Classic Revivals might also be considered romantic; but, as we have seen, the architects of the Classic Revival were striving primarily for form which should be serene, well composed, consistent, harmonious, adequate.The true romanticist is not satisfied with this. He demands more; he demands that architecture shall be â€Å"expressive† – that is, that it shall aim definitely at expressing specific emotions such as religious awe, grandeur, gaiety, intimacy, sadness. He seeks to make architecture as expressive and as personal as a lyric poem, and oftentimes this demand for emotional expression he makes superior to any other claims.All architecture is expressive; but, whereas the classic architect allows the expression to arise naturally from forms developed in the common-sense solution of his problem, the true romantic seeks expression first, with a definite self-conscious urge. To the romantic architect of the mid-nineteenth century, Romanesque and Gothic had some how come to seem more emotional than the other styles. References Andrews, Wayne. American Gothic: Its Origins, Its Trials. Its Triumphs. New York: Random House, 1975. Donoghue, John.Alexander Jackson Davis, Romantic Architect, 1803-1892. New York: Arno Press, 1982. Dunlap, William. â€Å"History of the Rise and Progress of the Arts of Design in the United States. 1834. † Vol. 3. Ed. Alexander Wyckoff. New York: Benjamin Blom, 1965. Early, James. Romanticism and American Architecture. New York: A. S. Barnes, 1965. Latrobe, Benjamin Henry. â€Å"The Virginia Journais of Benjamin Henry Latrobe, 1795-1798. † Vol. 1. Ed. Edward C. Carter II. New Haven: Yale UP, 1977. Lougy, Robert E. Charles Robert Maturin. Lewisburg: Bucknell UP, 1975.Pierson, William H. , Jr. American Buildings and Their Architects: Technology and the Picturesque, The Corporate and the Early Gothic Styles. 1978. Garden City, NY: Anchor, 1980. Robertson, Fiona. Legitimate Histories: Scott; Gothic, and the Authorities of Fiction. Oxford: Clarendon, 1994. Schimmelman, Janice Gayle. The Spirit of the Gothic: The Gothic Revival House in Nineteenth-Century America. Diss. U of Michigan, 1980. Snadon, Patrick. A. J. Davis and the Gothic Revival Castle in America, 1832-1865. Diss. Cornell U, 1988.

Om Heizer Om10 Ism 04

Chapter FORECASTING Discussion Questions 1.? Qualitative models incorporate subjective factors into the forecasting model. Qualitative models are useful when subjective factors are important. When quantitative data are difficult to obtain, qualitative models may be appropriate. 2.? Approaches are qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative is relatively subjective; quantitative uses numeric models. 3.? Short-range (under 3 months), medium-range (3 months to 3 years), and long-range (over 3 years). 4.? The steps that should be used to develop a forecasting system are: (a)?Determine the purpose and use of the forecast (b)? Select the item or quantities that are to be forecasted (c)? Determine the time horizon of the forecast (d)? Select the type of forecasting model to be used (e)? Gather the necessary data (f)? Validate the forecasting model (g)? Make the forecast (h)? Implement and evaluate the results 5.? Any three of: sales planning, production planning and budgeting, cash budgeting, analyzing various operating plans. 6.? There is no mechanism for growth in these models; they are built exclusively from historical demand values. Such methods will always lag trends. .? Exponential smoothing is a weighted moving average where all previous values are weighted with a set of weights that decline exponentially. 8.? MAD, MSE, and MAPE are common measures of forecast accuracy. To find the more accurate forecasting model, forecast with each tool for several periods where the demand outcome is known, and calculate MSE, MAPE, or MAD for each. The smaller error indicates the better forecast. 9.? The Delphi technique involves: (a)? Assembling a group of experts in such a manner as to preclude direct communication between identifiable members of the group (b)?Assembling the responses of each expert to the questions or problems of interest (c)? Summarizing these responses (d)? Providing each expert with the summary of all responses (e)? Asking each expert to study the summary of the responses and respond again to the questions or problems of interest. (f)? Repeating steps (b) through (e) several times as necessary to obtain convergence in responses. If convergence has not been obtained by the end of the fourth cycle, the responses at that time should probably be accepted and the process terminated—little additional convergence is likely if the process is continued. 0.? A time series model predicts on the basis of the assumption that the future is a function of the past, whereas an associative model incorporates into the model the variables of factors that might influence the quantity being forecast. 11.? A time series is a sequence of evenly spaced data points with the four components of trend, seasonality, cyclical, and random variation. 12.? When the smoothing constant, (, is large (close to 1. 0), more weight is given to recent data; when ( is low (close to 0. 0), more weight is given to past data. 13.? Seasonal patterns are of fixed duration a nd repeat regularly.Cycles vary in length and regularity. Seasonal indices allow â€Å"generic† forecasts to be made specific to the month, week, etc. , of the application. 14.? Exponential smoothing weighs all previous values with a set of weights that decline exponentially. It can place a full weight on the most recent period (with an alpha of 1. 0). This, in effect, is the naive approach, which places all its emphasis on last period’s actual demand. 15.? Adaptive forecasting refers to computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes its present limit. 16.?Tracking signals alert the user of a forecasting tool to periods in which the forecast was in significant error. 17.? The correlation coefficient measures the degree to which the independent and dependent variables move together. A negative value would mean that as X increases, Y tends to fall. The variables move together, but move in opposite directions. 18.? Independent variable (x) is said to explain variations in the dependent variable (y). 19.? Nearly every industry has seasonality. The seasonality must be filtered out for good medium-range planning (of production and inventory) and performance evaluation. 20.? There are many examples.Demand for raw materials and component parts such as steel or tires is a function of demand for goods such as automobiles. 21.? Obviously, as we go farther into the future, it becomes more difficult to make forecasts, and we must diminish our reliance on the forecasts. Ethical Dilemma This exercise, derived from an actual situation, deals as much with ethics as with forecasting. Here are a few points to consider:  ¦ No one likes a system they don’t understand, and most college presidents would feel uncomfortable with this one. It does offer the advantage of depoliticizing the funds al- location if used wisely and fairly.But to do so means all parties must have input to the process (such as smoothing constants) and all data need to be open to everyone.  ¦ The smoothing constants could be selected by an agreed-upon criteria (such as lowest MAD) or could be based on input from experts on the board as well as the college.  ¦ Abuse of the system is tied to assigning alphas based on what results they yield, rather than what alphas make the most sense.  ¦ Regression is open to abuse as well. Models can use many years of data yielding one result or few years yielding a totally different forecast.Selection of associative variables can have a major impact on results as well. Active Model Exercises* ACTIVE MODEL 4. 1: Moving Averages 1.? What does the graph look like when n = 1? The forecast graph mirrors the data graph but one period later. 2.? What happens to the graph as the number of periods in the moving average increases? The forecast graph becomes shorter and smoother. 3.? What value for n minimizes the MAD for this data? n = 1 (a naive forecast) ACTIVE MODEL 4. 2: Exponential Smoothing 1.? Wha t happens to the graph when alpha equals zero? The graph is a straight line.The forecast is the same in each period. 2.? What happens to the graph when alpha equals one? The forecast follows the same pattern as the demand (except for the first forecast) but is offset by one period. This is a naive forecast. 3.? Generalize what happens to a forecast as alpha increases. As alpha increases the forecast is more sensitive to changes in demand. *Active Models 4. 1, 4. 2, 4. 3, and 4. 4 appear on our Web site, www. pearsonhighered. com/heizer. 4.? At what level of alpha is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) minimized? alpha = . 16 ACTIVE MODEL 4. 3: Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment .? Scroll through different values for alpha and beta. Which smoothing constant appears to have the greater effect on the graph? alpha 2.? With beta set to zero, find the best alpha and observe the MAD. Now find the best beta. Observe the MAD. Does the addition of a trend improve the forecast? alpha = . 11, MAD = 2. 59; beta above . 6 changes the MAD (by a little) to 2. 54. ACTIVE MODEL 4. 4: Trend Projections 1.? What is the annual trend in the data? 10. 54 2.? Use the scrollbars for the slope and intercept to determine the values that minimize the MAD. Are these the same values that regression yields?No, they are not the same values. For example, an intercept of 57. 81 with a slope of 9. 44 yields a MAD of 7. 17. End-of-Chapter Problems [pic] (b) | | |Weighted | |Week of |Pints Used |Moving Average | |August 31 |360 | | |September 7 |389 |381 ( . 1 = ? 38. 1 | |September 14 |410 |368 ( . 3 = 110. 4 | |September 21 |381 |374 ( . 6 = 224. 4 | |September 28 |368 |372. | |October 5 |374 | | | |Forecast 372. 9 | | (c) | | | |Forecasting | Error | | |Week of |Pints |Forecast |Error |( . 20 |Forecast| |August 31 |360 |360 |0 |0 |360 | |September 7 |389 |360 |29 |5. 8 |365. 8 | |September 14 |410 |365. 8 |44. 2 |8. 84 |374. 64 | |September 21 |381 |374. 64 |6. 36 |1. 272 |375. 12 | |Se ptember 28 |368 |375. 912 |–7. 912 |–1. 5824 |374. 3296| |October 5 |374 |374. 3296 |–. 3296 |–. 06592 |374. 2636| The forecast is 374. 26. (d)? The three-year moving average appears to give better results. [pic] [pic] Naive tracks the ups and downs best but lags the data by one period. Exponential smoothing is probably better because it smoothes the data and does not have as much variation. TEACHING NOTE: Notice how well exponential smoothing forecasts the naive. [pic] (c)? The banking industry has a great deal of seasonality in its processing requirements [pic] b) | | |Two-Year | | | |Year |Mileage |Moving Average |Error ||Error| | |1 |3,000 | | | | | |2 |4,000 | | | | | |3 |3,400 |3,500 |–100 | |100 | |4 |3,800 |3,700 |100 | |100 | |5 |3,700 |3,600 |100 | |100 | | | |Totals| |100 | | |300 | | [pic] 4. 5? (c)? Weighted 2 year M. A. ith . 6 weight for most recent year. |Year |Mileage |Forecast |Error ||Error| | |1 |3,000 | | | | |2 |4,000 | | | | |3 |3,400 |3,600 |–200 |200 | |4 |3,800 |3,640 |160 |160 | |5 |3,700 |3,640 |60 |60 | | | | | | | 420 | | Forecast for year 6 is 3,740 miles. [pic] 4. 5? (d) | | |Forecast |Error ( |New | |Year |Mileage |Forecast |Error |( = . 50 |Forecast | |1 |3,000 |3,000 | ?0 | 0 |3,000 | |2 |4,000 |3,000 |1,000 |500 |3,500 | |3 |3,400 |3,500 | –100 |–50 |3,450 | |4 |3,800 |3,450 | 350 |175 |3,625 | |5 |3,700 |3,625 | 75 |? 38 |3,663 | | | |Total |1,325| | | | The forecast is 3,663 miles. 4. 6 |Y Sales |X Period |X2 |XY | |January |20 |1 |1 |20 | |February |21 |2 |4 |42 | |March |15 |3 |9 |45 | |April |14 |4 |16 |56 | |May |13 |5 |25 |65 | |June |16 |6 |36 |96 | |July |17 |7 |49 |119 | |August |18 |8 |64 |144 | |September |20 |9 |81 |180 | |October |20 |10 |100 |200 | |November |21 |11 |121 |231 | |December |23 |12 |144 |276 | |Sum | 18 |78 |650 |1,474 | |Average |? 18. 2 | 6. 5 | | | (a) [pic] (b)? [i]? NaiveThe coming January = December = 23 [ii]? 3-month moving (20 + 21 + 23)/3 = 21. 33 [iii]? 6-month weighted [(0. 1 ( 17) + (. 1 ( 18) + (0. 1 ( 20) + (0. 2 ( 20) + (0. 2 ( 21) + (0. 3 ( 23)]/1. 0 = 20. 6 [iv]? Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0. 3 [pic] [v]? Trend? [pic] [pic] Forecast = 15. 73? +?. 38(13) = 20. 67, where next January is the 13th month. (c)? Only trend provides an equation that can extend beyond one month 4. 7? Present = Period (week) 6. a) So: where [pic] )If the weights are 20, 15, 15, and 10, there will be no change in the forecast because these are the same relative weights as in part (a), i. e. , 20/60, 15/60, 15/60, and 10/60. c)If the weights are 0. 4, 0. 3, 0. 2, and 0. 1, then the forecast becomes 56. 3, or 56 patients. [pic] [pic] |Temperature |2 day M. A. | |Error||(Error)2| Absolute |% Error | |93 |— | — |— |— | |94 |— | — |— |— | |93 |93. 5 | 0. 5 |? 0. 25| 100(. 5/93) | = 0. 54% | |95 |93. 5 | 1. 5 | ? 2. 25| 100(1. 5/95) | = 1. 58% | |96 |94. 0 | 2. 0 |? 4. 0 0| 100(2/96) | = 2. 08% | |88 |95. 5 | 7. | 56. 25| 100(7. 5/88) | = 8. 52% | |90 |92. 0 | 2. 0 |? 4. 00| 100(2/90) | = 2. 22% | | | | |13. 5| | | 66. 75 | | |14. 94% | MAD = 13. 5/5 = 2. 7 (d)? MSE = 66. 75/5 = 13. 35 (e)? MAPE = 14. 94%/5 = 2. 99% 4. 9? (a, b) The computations for both the two- and three-month averages appear in the table; the results appear in the figure below. [pic] (c)? MAD (two-month moving average) = . 750/10 = . 075 MAD (three-month moving average) = . 793/9 = . 088 Therefore, the two-month moving average seems to have performed better. [pic] (c)? The forecasts are about the same. [pic] 4. 12? t |Day |Actual |Forecast | | | | |Demand |Demand | | |1 |Monday |88 |88 | | |2 |Tuesday |72 |88 | | |3 |Wednesday |68 |84 | | |4 |Thursday |48 |80 | | |5 |Friday | |72 |( Answer | Ft = Ft–1 + ((At–1 – Ft–1) Let ( = . 25. Let Monday forecast demand = 88 F2 = 88 + . 25(88 – 88) = 88 + 0 = 88 F3 = 88 + . 25(72 – 88) = 88 – 4 = 84 F4 = 84 + . 25(68 – 84) = 84 – 4 = 80 F5 = 80 + . 25(48 – 80) = 80 – 8 = 72 4. 13? (a)? Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 6: | | |Exponential |Absolute | |Year |Demand |Smoothing ( = 0. |Deviation | |1 |45 |41 |4. 0 | |2 |50 |41. 0 + 0. 6(45–41) = 43. 4 |6. 6 | |3 |52 |43. 4 + 0. 6(50–43. 4) = 47. 4 |4. 6 | |4 |56 |47. 4 + 0. 6(52–47. 4) = 50. 2 |5. 8 | |5 |58 |50. 2 + 0. 6(56–50. 2) = 53. 7 |4. 3 | |6 |? |53. 7 + 0. 6(58–53. 7) = 56. 3 | | ( = 25. 3 MAD = 5. 06 Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 9: | | |Exponential |Absolute | |Year |Demand |Smoothing ( = 0. |Deviation | |1 |45 |41 |4. 0 | |2 |50 |41. 0 + 0. 9(45–41) = 44. 6 |5. 4 | |3 |52 |44. 6 + 0. 9(50–44. 6 ) = 49. 5 |2. 5 | |4 |56 |49. 5 + 0. 9(52–49. 5) = 51. 8 |4. 2 | |5 |58 |51. 8 + 0. 9(56–51. 8) = 55. 6 |2. 4 | |6 |? |55. 6 + 0. 9(58–55. 6) = 57. 8 | | ( = 18. 5 MAD = 3. 7 (b)? 3-year moving average: | | |Three-Year |Absolute | |Year |Demand |Moving Average |Deviation | |1 45 | | | |2 |50 | | | |3 |52 | | | |4 |56 |(45 + 50 + 52)/3 = 49 |7 | |5 |58 | (50 + 52 + 56)/3 = 52. 7 |5. 3 | |6 |? | (52 + 56 + 58)/3 = 55. 3 | | ( = 12. 3 MAD = 6. 2 (c)? Trend projection: | | | |Absolute | |Year |Demand |Trend Projection |Deviation | |1 |45 |42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 1 = 45. 8 |0. 8 | |2 |50 |42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 2 = 49. 0 |1. 0 | |3 |52 |42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 3 = 52. 2 |0. 2 | |4 |56 |42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 4 = 55. 4 |0. | |5 |58 |42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 5 = 58. 6 |0. 6 | |6 |? |42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 6 = 61. 8 | | ( = 3. 2 MAD = 0. 64 [pic] | X |Y |XY |X2 | | 1 |45 | 45 | 1 | | 2 |50 |100 | 4 | | 3 |52 |156 | 9 | | 4 |56 |224 |16 | | 5 |58 |290 |25 | Then: (X = 15, (Y = 261, (XY = 815, (X2 = 55, [pic]= 3, [pic]= 52. 2 Therefore: [pic] (d)? Comparing the results of the forecasting methodologies for parts (a), (b), and (c). |Forecast Methodology |MAD | |Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. |5. 06 | |Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 9 |3. 7 | |3-year moving average |6. 2 | |Trend projection |0. 64 | Based on a mean absolute deviation criterion, the trend projection is to be preferred over the exponential smoothing with ( = 0. 6, exponential smoothing with ( = 0. 9, or the 3-year moving average forecast methodologies. 4. 14 Method 1:MAD: (0. 20 + 0. 05 + 0. 05 + 0. 20)/4 = . 125 ( better MSE : (0. 04 + 0. 0025 + 0. 0025 + 0. 04)/4 = . 021 Method 2:MAD: (0. 1 + 0. 20 + 0. 10 + 0. 11) / 4 = . 1275 MSE : (0. 01 + 0. 04 + 0. 01 + 0. 0121) / 4 = . 018 ( better 4. 15 | |Forecast Three-Year |Absolute | |Year |Sales |Moving Average |Deviation | |2005 |450 | | | |2006 |495 | | | |2007 |518 | | | |2008 |563 |(450 + 495 + 518)/3 = 487. 7 |75. 3 | |2009 |584 |(495 + 518 + 563)/3 = 525. 3 |58. 7 | |2010 | |(518 + 563 + 584)/3 = 555. 0 | | | | | ( = 134 | | | | MAD = 67 | 4. 16 Year |Time Period X |Sales Y |X2 |XY | |2005 |1 |450 | 1 |450 | |2006 |2 |495 | 4 |990 | |2007 |3 |518 | 9 |1554 | |2008 |4 |563 |16 |2252 | |2009 |5 |584 |25 |2920 | | | | ( = 2610| |( = 55 | |( = 8166 | [pic] [pic] |Year |Sales |Forecast Trend |Absolute Deviation | |2005 |450 |454. 8 |4. 8 | |2006 |495 |488. 4 |6. | |2007 |518 |522. 0 |4. 0 | |2008 |563 |555. 6 |7. 4 | |2009 |584 |589. 2 |5. 2 | |2010 | |622. 8 | | | | | | ( = 28 | | | | | MAD = 5. 6 | 4. 17 | | |Forecast Exponential |Absolute | |Year |Sales |Smoothing ( = 0. 6 |Deviation | |2005 |450 |410. 0 |40. | |2006 |495 |410 + 0. 6(450 – 410) = 434. 0 |61. 0 | |2007 |518 |434 + 0. 6(495 – 434) = 470. 6 |47. 4 | |2008 |563 |470. 6 + 0. 6(518 – 470. 6) = 499. 0 |64. 0 | |2009 |584 |499 + 0. 6(563 – 499) = 537. 4 |46. 6 | |2010 | |537. 4 + 0. 6(584 – 537. 4) = 565. 6 | | | | | ( = 259 | | | | MAD = 51. 8 | | | |Forecast Exponential |Absolute | |Year |Sales |Smoothing ( = 0. |Deviation | |2005 |450 |410. 0 |40. 0 | |2006 |495 |410 + 0. 9(450 – 410) = 446. 0 |49. 0 | |2007 |518 |446 + 0. 9(495 – 446) = 490. 1 |27. 9 | |2008 |563 |490. 1 + 0. 9(518 – 490. 1) = 515. 2 |47. 8 | |2009 |584 |515. 2 + 0. 9(563 – 515. 2) = 558. 2 |25. 8 | |2010 | |558. 2 + 0. 9(584 – 558. 2) = 581. 4 | | | | |( = 190. 5 | | | |MAD = 38. 1 | (Refer to Solved Problem 4. 1)For ( = 0. 3, absolute deviations for 2005–2009 are 40. 0, 73. 0, 74. 1, 96. 9, 88. 8, respectively. So the MAD = 372. 8/5 = 74. 6. [pic] Because it gives the lowest MAD, the smoothing constant of ( = 0. 9 gives the most accurate forecast. 4. 18? We need to find the smoothing constant (. We know in general that Ft = Ft–1 + ((At–1 – Ft–1); t = 2, 3, 4. Choose either t = 3 or t = 4 (t = 2 won’t let us find ( because F2 = 50 = 50 + ((50 – 50) holds for any (). Let’s pick t = 3. Then F3 = 48 = 50 + ((42 – 50) or 48 = 50 + 42( – 50( or –2 = –8( So, . 25 = ( Now we can find F5 : F5 = 50 + ((46 – 50)F5 = 50 + 46( – 50( = 50 – 4( For ( = . 25, F5 = 50 – 4(. 25) = 49 The forecast for time period 5 = 49 units. 4. 19? Trend adjusted exponential smoothing: ( = 0. 1, ( = 0. 2 | | |Unadjusted | |Adjusted | | | |Month |Income |Forecast |Trend |Forecast ||Error||Error2 | |February |70. 0 | 65. 0 | 0. 0 | 65 |? 5. 0 |? 25. 0 | |March |68. 5 | 65. 5 | 0. 1 | 65. 6 |? 2. 9 |? 8. 4 | |April |64. 8 | 65. 9 | 0. 16 |66. 05 |? 1. 2 |? 1. 6 | |May |71. 7 | 65. 92 | 0. 13 |66. 06 |? 5. 6 |? 31. 9 | |June |71. | 66. 62 | 0. 25 |66. 87 |? 4. 4 |? 19. 7 | |July |72. 8 | 67. 31 | 0. 33 |67. 64 |? 5. 2 |? 26. 6 | |August | | 68. 16 | |68. 60 | |24. 3| | |113. 2| | MAD = 24. 3/6 = 4. 05, MSE = 113. 2/6 = 18. 87. Note that all numbers are rounded. Note: To use POM for Windows to solve this problem, a period 0, which contains the initial forecast and initial trend, must be added. 4. 20? Trend adjusted exponential smoothing: ( = 0. 1, ( = 0. 8 [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] [pic] 4. 23? Students must determine the naive forecast for the four months .The naive forecast for March is the February actual of 83, etc. |(a) | |Actual |Forecast ||Error| ||% Error| | | |March |101 |120 |19 |100 (19/101) = 18. 81% | | |April |? 96 |114 |18 |100 (18/96) ? = 18. 75% | | |May |? 89 |110 |21 |100 (21/89) ? = 23. 60% | | |June |108 |108 |? 0 |100 (0/108) ? = 0% | | | | | | |58 | | | 61. 16% | [pic] |(b)| |Actual |Naive ||Error| ||% Error| | | |March |101 |? 83 |18 |100 (18/101) = 17. 82% | | |April |? 96 |101 |? |100 (5/96) ? = 5. 21% | | |May |? 89 |? 96 |? 7 |100 (7/89) ? =? 7. 87% | | |June |108 |? 89 |19 |100 (19/108) = 17. 59% | | | | | | |49| | |48. 49% | | [pic] Naive outperforms management. (c)? MAD for the manager’s technique is 14. 5, while MAD for the naive forecast is only 12. 25. MAPEs are 15. 29% and 12. 12%, respectively. So the naive method is better. 4. 24? (a)? Graph of demand The observations obviously do not form a straight line but do tend to cluster about a straight line over the range shown. (b)? Least-squares regression: [pic] Assume Appearances X |Demand Y |X2 |Y2 |XY | |3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |4 | 6 |16 | 36 |24 | |7 | 7 |49 | 49 |49 | |6 | 5 |36 | 25 |30 | |8 |10 |64 |100 |80 | |5 | 7 |25 | 49 |35 | |9 | ? | | | | (X = 33, (Y = 38, (XY = 227, (X2 = 199, [pic]= 5. 5, [pic]= 6. 33. Therefore: [pic] The following figure shows both the data and the resulting equation: [pic] (c) If there are nine performances by Stone Temple Pilots, the estimated sales are: (d) R = . 82 is the correlation coefficient, and R2 = . 68 means 68% of the variation in sales can be explained by TV appearances. 4. 25? |Number of | | | | | |Accidents | | | | |Month |(y) |x |xy |x2 | |January | 30 | 1 | 30 | 1 | |February | 40 | 2 | 80 | 4 | |March | 60 | 3 |180 | 9 | |April | 90 | 4 |360 |16 | |? Totals | |220 | | | [pic] The regression line is y = 5 + 20x. The forecast for May (x = 5) is y = 5 + 20(5) = 105. 4. 26 |Season |Year1 |Year2 |Average |Average |Seasonal |Year3 | | |Demand |Demand |Year1(Year2 |Season |Index |Demand | | | | |Demand |Demand | | | |Fall |200 |250 |225. 0 |250 |0. 90 |270 | |Winter |350 |300 |325. |250 |1. 30 |390 | |Spring |150 |165 |157. 5 |250 |0. 63 |189 | |Summer |300 |285 |292. 5 |250 |1. 17 |351 | 4. 27 | | Winter |Spring |Summer |Fall | |2006 |1,400 |1,500 |1,000 |600 | |2007 |1,200 |1,400 |2,100 |750 | |2008 |1,000 |1,600 |2,000 |650 | |2009 | 900 |1,500 |1,900 | 500 | | |4,500 |6,000 |7,000 |2,500 | 4. 28 | | | | |Average | | | | | | |Average |Quarterly |Seasonal | |Quarter |2007 |2008 |2009 |Demand |Demand |Index | |Winter | 73 | 65 | 89 | 75. 67 |106. 67 |0. 709 | |Spring |104 | 82 |146 |110. 67 |106. 67 |1. 037 | |Summer |168 |124 |205 |165. 67 |106. 67 |1. 553 | |Fall | 74 | 52 | 98 | 74. 67 |106. 67 |0. 700 | 4. 29? 2011 is 25 years beyond 1986. Therefore, the 2011 quarter numbers are 101 through 104. | | | | |(5) | | |(2) |(3) |(4) |Adjusted | |(1) |Quarter |Forecast |Seasonal |Forecast | |Quarter |Number |(77 + . 3Q) |Factor |[(3) ( (4)] | |Winter |101 |12 0. 43 | . 8 | 96. 344 | |Spring |102 |120. 86 |1. 1 |132. 946 | |Summer |103 |121. 29 |1. 4 |169. 806 | |Fall |104 |121. 72 | . 7 | 85. 204 | 4. 30? Given Y = 36 + 4. 3X (a) Y = 36 + 4. 3(70) = 337 (b) Y = 36 + 4. 3(80) = 380 (c) Y = 36 + 4. 3(90) = 423 4. 31 4. 33? (a)? See the table below. For next year (x = 6), the number of transistors (in millions) is forecasted as y = 126 + 18(6) = 126 + 108 = 234. Then y = a + bx, where y = number sold, x = price, and |4. 32? a) | x |y |xy |x2 | | | 16 | 330 | 5,280 |256 | | | 12 | 270 | 3,240 |144 | | | 18 | 380 | 6,840 |324 | | | 14 | 300 | 4,200 |196 | | | 60 |1,280 |19,560 |920 | So at x = 2. 80, y = 1,454. 6 – 277. 6($2. 80) = 677. 32. Now round to the nearest integer: Answer: 677 lattes. [pic] (b)? If the forecast is for 20 guests, the bar sales forecast is 50 + 18(20) = $410. Each guest accounts for an additional $18 in bar sales. |Table for Problem 4. 33 | | | | | |Year |Transistors | | | | | | | |(x) |(y) |xy |x2 |126 + 18x |E rror |Error2 ||% Error| | | |? 1 |140 |? 140 |? 1 |144 |–4 |? 16 |100 (4/140)? = 2. 86% | | |? 2 |160 |? 320 |? 4 |162 |–2 | 4 |100 (2/160)? = 1. 25% | | |? 3 |190 |? 570 |? 9 |180 |10 |100 |100 (10/190) = 5. 26% | | |? 4 |200 |? 800 |16 |198 |? 2 | 4 |100 (2/200) = 1. 00% | | |? |210 |1,050 |25 |216 |–6 |? 36 |100 (6/210)? = 2. 86% | |Totals |15 | | |900 | | |2,800 | | (b)? MSE = 160/5 = 32 (c)? MAPE = 13. 23%/5 = 2. 65% 4. 34? Y = 7. 5 + 3. 5X1 + 4. 5X2 + 2. 5X3 (a)? 28 (b)? 43 (c)? 58 4. 35? (a)? [pic] = 13,473 + 37. 65(1860) = 83,502 (b)? The predicted selling price is $83,502, but this is the average price for a house of this size. There are other factors besides square footage that will impact the selling price of a house. If such a house sold for $95,000, then these other factors could be contributing to the additional value. (c)?Some other quantitative variables would be age of the house, number of bedrooms, size of the lot, and size of the garage, etc. (d)? Coefficient of determination = (0. 63)2 = 0. 397. This means that only about 39. 7% of the variability in the sales price of a house is explained by this regression model that only includes square footage as the explanatory variable. 4. 36? (a)? Given: Y = 90 + 48. 5X1 + 0. 4X2 where: [pic] If: Number of days on the road ( X1 = 5 and distance traveled ( X2 = 300 then: Y = 90 + 48. 5 ( 5 + 0. 4 ( 300 = 90 + 242. 5 + 120 = 452. 5 Therefore, the expected cost of the trip is $452. 50. (b)? The reimbursement request is much higher than predicted by the model. This request should probably be questioned by the accountant. (c)?A number of other variables should be included, such as: 1.? the type of travel (air or car) 2.? conference fees, if any 3.? costs of entertaining customers 4.? other transportation costs—cab, limousine, special tolls, or parking In addition, the correlation coefficient of 0. 68 is not exceptionally high. It indicates that the model explains approximately 46% of the overall variation in trip cost. This correlation coefficient would suggest that the model is not a particularly good one. 4. 37? (a, b) |Period |Demand |Forecast |Error |Running sum ||error| | | 1 |20 |20 |0. 00 |0. 00 |0. 00 | | 2 |21 |20 |1. 00 |1. 0 |1. 00 | | 3 |28 |20. 5 |7. 50 |8. 50 |7. 50 | | 4 |37 |24. 25 |12. 75 |21. 25 |12. 75 | | 5 |25 |30. 63 |–5. 63 |15. 63 |5. 63 | | 6 |29 |27. 81 |1. 19 |16. 82 |1. 19 | | 7 |36 |28. 41 |7. 59 |24. 41 |7. 59 | | 8 |22 |32. 20 |–10. 20 |14. 21 |10. 20 | | 9 |25 |27. 11 |–2. 10 |12. 10 |2. 10 | |10 |28 |26. 05 | 1. 95 |14. 05 | | | | | | |1. 95 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |MAD[pic]5. 00 | Cumulative error = 14. 05; MAD = 5? Tracking = 14. 05/5 ( 2. 82 4. 38? (a)? least squares equation: Y = –0. 158 + 0. 1308X (b)? Y = –0. 158 + 0. 1308(22) = 2. 719 million (c)? coefficient of correlation = r = 0. 966 coefficient of determination = r2 = 0. 934 4. 39 |Year X |Patients Y |X2 |Y2 |XY | |? 1 |? 36 | 1 |? 1,296 | 36 | |? 2 |? 33 | |? 1,089 | 66 | |? 3 |? 40 | 9 |? 1,600 |? 120 | |? 4 |? 41 |? 16 |? 1,681 |? 164 | |? 5 |? 40 |? 25 |? 1,600 |? 200 | |? 6 |? 55 |? 36 |? 3,025 |? 330 | |? 7 |? 60 |? 49 |? 3,600 |? 420 | |? 8 |? 54 |? 64 |? 2,916 |? 432 | |? 9 |? 58 |? 81 |? 3,364 |? 522 | |10 |? 61 |100 |? 3,721 |? 10 | |55 | | |478 | | |X |Y |Forecast |Deviation |Deviation | |? 1 |36 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 1 = 33. 1 |? 2. 9 |2. 9 | |? 2 |33 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 2 = 36. 3 |–3. 3 |3. 3 | |? 3 |40 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 3 = 39. 6 |? 0. 4 |0. 4 | |? 4 |41 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 4 = 42. 9 |–1. 9 |1. 9 | |? 5 |40 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 5 = 46. 2 |–6. 2 |6. 2 | |? 6 |55 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 6 = 49. 4 |? 5. 6 |5. 6 | |? 7 |60 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 7 = 52. 7 |? 7. 3 |7. 3 | |? |54 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 8 = 56. 1 |–2. 1 |2. 1 | |? 9 |58 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 9 = 59. 3 |–1. 3 |1. 3 | |10 |61 |29. 8 + 3. 28 ( 10 = 62. 6 |–1. 6 |1. 6 | | | | | | ( = | | | | | |32. 6 | | | | | |MAD = 3. 26 | The MAD is 3. 26—this is approximately 7% of the average number of patients and 10% of the minimum number of patients. We also see absolute deviations, for years 5, 6, and 7 in the range 5. 6–7. 3.The comparison of the MAD with the average and minimum number of patients and the comparatively large deviations during the middle years indicate that the forecast model is not exceptionally accurate. It is more useful for predicting general trends than the actual number of patients to be seen in a specific year. 4. 40 | |Crime |Patients | | | | |Year |Rate X |Y |X2 |Y2 |XY | |? 1 |? 58. 3 |? 36 |? 3,398. 9 |? 1,296 |? 2,098. 8 | |? 2 |? 61. 1 |? 33 |? 3,733. 2 |? 1,089 |? 2,016. 3 | |? 3 |? 73. |? 40 |? 5,387. 6 |? 1,600 |? 2,936. 0 | |? 4 |? 75. 7 |? 41 |? 5,730. 5 |? 1,681 |? 3,103. 7 | |? 5 |? 81. 1 |? 40 |? 6,577. 2 |? 1,600 |? 3,244. 0 | |? 6 |? 89. 0 |? 55 |? 7,921. 0 |? 3,025 |? 4,895. 0 | |? 7 |101. 1 |? 60 |10,221. 2 |? 3,600 |? 6,066. 0 | |? 8 |? 94 . 8 |? 54 |? 8,987. 0 |? 2,916 |? 5,119. 2 | |? 9 |103. 3 |? 58 |10,670. 9 |? 3,364 |? 5,991. 4 | |10 |116. 2 |? 61 |13,502. 4 |? 3,721 |? 7,088. 2 | |Column | |854. | | |478 | |Totals | | | | | | |months) |(Millions) |(1,000,000s) | | | | |Year |(X) |(Y) |X2 |Y2 |XY | |? 1 |? 7 |1. 5 |? 49 |? 2. 25 |10. 5 | |? 2 |? 2 |1. 0 | 4 |? 1. 00 |? 2. 0 | |? 3 |? 6 |1. 3 |? 36 |? 1. 69 |? 7. 8 | |? 4 |? 4 |1. 5 |? 16 |? 2. 25 |? 6. 0 | |? 5 |14 |2. 5 |196 |? 6. 25 |35. 0 | |? 6 |15 |2. 7 |225 |? 7. 9 |40. 5 | |? 7 |16 |2. 4 |256 |? 5. 76 |38. 4 | |? 8 |12 |2. 0 |144 |? 4. 00 |24. 0 | |? 9 |14 |2. 7 |196 |? 7. 29 |37. 8 | |10 |20 |4. 4 |400 |19. 36 |88. 0 | |11 |15 |3. 4 |225 |11. 56 |51. 0 | |12 |? 7 |1. 7 |? 49 |? 2. 89 |11. 9 | Given: Y = a + bX where: [pic] and (X = 132, (Y = 27. 1, (XY = 352. 9, (X2 = 1796, (Y2 = 71. 59, [pic] = 11, [pic]= 2. 26. Then: [pic] andY = 0. 511 + 0. 159X (c)?Given a tourist population of 10,000,000, the model predicts a ridership of: Y = 0. 511 + 0. 159 ( 10 = 2. 101, or 2,101,000 persons. (d)? If there are no tourists at all, the model predicts a ridership of 0. 511, or 511,000 persons. One would not place much confidence in this forecast, however, because the number of tourists (zero) is outside the range of data used to develop the model. (e)? The standard error of the estimate is given by: (f)? The correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination are given by: [pic] 4. 42? (a)? This problem gives students a chance to tackle a realistic problem in business, i. e. , not enough data to make a good forecast.As can be seen in the accompanying figure, the data contains both seasonal and trend factors. [pic] Averaging methods are not appropriate with trend, seasonal, or other patterns in the data. Moving averages smooth out seasonality. Exponential smoothing can forecast January next year, but not farther. Because seasonality is strong, a naive model that students create on their own might be best. (b) One model might be: Ft+1 = At–11 That is forecastnext period = actualone year earlier to account for seasonality. But this ignores the trend. One very good approach would be to calculate the increase from each month last year to each month this year, sum all 12 increases, and divide by 12.The forecast for next year would equal the value for the same month this year plus the average increase over the 12 months of last year. (c) Using this model, the January forecast for next year becomes: [pic] where 148 = total monthly increases from last year to this year. The forecasts for each of the months of next year then become: |Jan. |29 | |July. |56 | |Feb. |26 | |Aug. |53 | |Mar. |32 | |Sep. |45 | |Apr. |35 | |Oct. |35 | |May. |42 | |Nov. |38 | |Jun. |50 | |Dec. |29 | Both history and forecast for the next year are shown in the accompanying figure: [pic] 4. 3? (a) and (b) See the following table: | |Actual |Smoothed | |Smoothed | | |Week |Value |Value |Forecast |Value |Forecast | |t |A(t) |Ft (( = 0. 2) |Err or |Ft (( = 0. 6)|Error | | 1 |50 |+50. 0 |? +0. 0 |+50. 0 |? +0. 0 | | 2 |35 |+50. 0 |–15. 0 |+50. 0 |–15. 0 | | 3 |25 |+47. 0 |–22. 0 |+41. 0 |–16. 0 | | 4 |40 |+42. 6 |? –2. 6 |+31. 4 |? +8. 6 | | 5 |45 |+42. 1 |? –2. 9 |+36. 6 |? +8. | | 6 |35 |+42. 7 |? –7. 7 |+41. 6 |? –6. 6 | | 7 |20 |+41. 1 |–21. 1 |+37. 6 |–17. 6 | | 8 |30 |+36. 9 |? –6. 9 |+27. 1 |? +2. 9 | | 9 |35 |+35. 5 |? –0. 5 |+28. 8 |? +6. 2 | |10 |20 |+35. 4 |–15. 4 |+32. 5 |–12. 5 | |11 |15 |+32. 3 |–17. 3 |+25. 0 |–10. 0 | |12 |40 |+28. 9 |+11. 1 |+19. 0 |+21. 0 | |13 |55 |+31. 1 |+23. 9 |+31. 6 |+23. 4 | |14 |35 |+35. 9 |? 0. 9 |+45. 6 |–10. 6 | |15 |25 |+36. 7 |–10. 7 |+39. 3 |–14. 3 | |16 |55 |+33. 6 |+21. 4 |+30. 7 |+24. 3 | |17 |55 |+37. 8 |+17. 2 |+45. 3 |? +9. 7 | |18 |40 |+41. 3 |? –1. 3 |+51. 1 |–11. 1 | |19 |35 |+41. 0 |? –6. 0 |+44. 4 |? –9. 4 | |20 |60 |+39. 8 |+20. 2 |+38. 8 |+21. 2 | |21 |75 |+43. 9 |+31. 1 |+51. 5 |+23. 5 | |22 |50 |+50. 1 |? –0. 1 |+65. 6 |–15. | |23 |40 |+50. 1 |–10. 1 |+56. 2 |–16. 2 | |24 |65 |+48. 1 |+16. 9 |+46. 5 |+18. 5 | |25 | |+51. 4 | |+57. 6 | | | | |MAD = 11. 8 |MAD = 13. 45 | (c)? Students should note how stable the smoothed values are for ( = 0. 2. When compared to actual week 25 calls of 85, the smoothing constant, ( = 0. 6, appears to do a slightly better job. On the basis of the standard error of the estimate and the MAD, the 0. 2 constant is better. However, other smoothing constants need to be examined. |4. 4 | | | | | | |Week |Actual Value |Smoothed Value |Trend Estimate |Forecast |Forecast | |t |At |Ft (( = 0. 3) |Tt (( = 0. 2) |FITt |Error | |? 1 |50. 000 |50. 000 |? 0. 000 |50. 000 | 0. 000 | |? 2 |35. 000 |50. 000 |? 0. 000 |50. 000 |–15. 000 | |? 3 |25. 000 |45. 500 |–0. 900 |44. 600 |–19. 600 | |? 4 |40. 000 |38. 720 |– 2. 076 |36. 644 | 3. 56 | |? 5 |45. 000 |37. 651 |–1. 875 |35. 776 | 9. 224 | |? 6 |35. 000 |38. 543 |–1. 321 |37. 222 |? –2. 222 | |? 7 |20. 000 |36. 555 |–1. 455 |35. 101 |–15. 101 | |? 8 |30. 000 |30. 571 |–2. 361 |28. 210 | 1. 790 | |? 9 |35. 000 |28. 747 |–2. 253 |26. 494 | 8. 506 | |10 |20. 000 |29. 046 |–1. 743 |27. 03 |? –7. 303 | |11 |15. 000 |25. 112 |–2. 181 |22. 931 |? –7. 931 | |12 |40. 000 |20. 552 |–2. 657 |17. 895 |? 22. 105 | |13 |55. 000 |24. 526 |–1. 331 |23. 196 |? 31. 804 | |14 |35. 000 |32. 737 |? 0. 578 |33. 315 | 1. 685 | |15 |25. 000 |33. 820 |? 0. 679 |34. 499 |? –9. 499 | |16 |55. 000 |31. 649 |? 0. 109 |31. 58 |? 23. 242 | |17 |55. 000 |38. 731 |? 1. 503 |40. 234 |? 14. 766 | |18 |40. 000 |44. 664 |? 2. 389 |47. 053 |? –7. 053 | |19 |35. 000 |44. 937 |? 1. 966 |46. 903 |–11. 903 | |20 |60. 000 |43. 332 |? 1. 252 |44. 584 |? 15. 416 | |21 |75. 00 0 |49. 209 |? 2. 177 |51. 386 |? 23. 614 | |22 |50. 000 |58. 470 |? 3. 94 |62. 064 |–12. 064 | |23 |40. 000 |58. 445 |? 2. 870 |61. 315 |–21. 315 | |24 |65. 000 |54. 920 |? 1. 591 |56. 511 | 8. 489 | |25 | |59. 058 |? 2. 100 |61. 158 | | To evaluate the trend adjusted exponential smoothing model, actual week 25 calls are compared to the forecasted value. The model appears to be producing a forecast approximately mid-range between that given by simple exponential smoothing using ( = 0. 2 and ( = 0. 6.Trend adjustment does not appear to give any significant improvement. 4. 45 |Month |At |Ft ||At – Ft | |(At – Ft) | |May |100 |100 | 0 | 0 | |June | 80 |104 |24 |–24 | |July |110 | 99 |11 |11 | |August |115 |101 |14 |14 | |September |105 |104 | 1 | 1 | |October |110 |104 |6 |6 | |November |125 |105 |20 |20 | December |120 |109 |11 |11 | | | | |Sum: 87 |Sum: 39 | |4. 46 (a) | |X |Y |X2 |Y2 |XY | | |? 421 |? 2. 90 |? 177241 | 8. 41 |? 1220. 9 | | |? 377 | ? 2. 93 |? 142129 | 8. 58 |? 1104. 6 | | |? 585 |? 3. 00 |? 342225 | 9. 00 |? 1755. 0 | | |? 690 |? 3. 45 |? 476100 |? 11. 90 |? 2380. 5 | | |? 608 |? 3. 66 |? 369664 |? 13. 40 |? 2225. 3 | | |? 390 |? 2. 88 |? 52100 | 8. 29 |? 1123. 2 | | |? 415 |? 2. 15 |? 172225 | 4. 62 | 892. 3 | | |? 481 |? 2. 53 |? 231361 | 6. 40 |? 1216. 9 | | |? 729 |? 3. 22 |? 531441 |? 10. 37 |? 2347. 4 | | |? 501 |? 1. 99 |? 251001 | 3. 96 | 997. 0 | | |? 613 |? 2. 75 |? 375769 | 7. 56 |? 1685. 8 | | |? 709 |? 3. 90 |? 502681 |? 15. 21 |? 2765. 1 | | |? 366 |? 1. 60 |? 133956 | 2. 56 | 585. 6 | | |Column |6885 | |36. 6 | | | |totals | | | | | |January |400 |— |— | — |— | |February |380 |400 |— |20. 0 |— | |March |410 |398 |— |12. 0 |— | |April |375 | 399. 2 |396. 67 |24. 2 |21. 67 | |May |405 | 396. 8 |388. 33 |8. 22 |16. 67 | | | | |MAD = | |16. 11| | |19. 17| | (d)Note that Amit has more forecast observations, while Barbara’s moving average does not start until month 4. Also note that the MAD for Amit is an average of 4 numbers, while Barbara’s is only 2. Amit’s MAD for exponential smoothing (16. 1) is lower than that of Barbara’s moving average (19. 17). So his forecast seems to be better. 4. 48? (a) |Quarter |Contracts X |Sales Y |X2 |Y2 |XY | |1 |? 153 |? 8 |? 23,409 |? 64 |? 1,224 | |2 |? 172 |10 |? 29,584 |100 |? 1,720 | |3 |? 197 |15 |? 38,809 |225 |? 2,955 | |4 |? 178 |? 9 |? 31,684 |? 81 |? 1,602 | |5 |? 185 |12 |? 34,225 |144 |? 2,220 | |6 |? 199 |13 |? 39,601 |169 |? 2,587 | |7 |? 205 |12 |? 42,025 |144 |? ,460 | |8 |? 226 |16 |? 51,076 |256 |? 3,616 | |Totals | | 1,515 | | |95 | b = (18384 – 8 ( 189. 375 ( 11. 875)/(290,413 – 8 ( 189. 375 ( 189. 375) = 0. 1121 a = 11. 875 – 0. 1121 ( 189. 375 = –9. 3495 Sales ( y) = –9. 349 + 0. 1121 (Contracts) (b) [pic] 4. 49? (a) |Method ( Exponential Smoothing | | | |0. 6 = ( | | | |Year |Deposits (Y) |Forecast ||E rror| |Error2 | | 1 |? 0. 25 |0. 25 |0. 00 |? 0. 00 | | 2 |? . 24 |0. 25 |0. 01 |? 0. 0001 | | 3 |? 0. 24 |0. 244 |0. 004 |? 0. 0000 | | 4 |? 0. 26 |0. 241 |0. 018 |? 0. 0003 | | 5 |? 0. 25 |0. 252 |0. 002 |? 0. 00 | | 6 |? 0. 30 |0. 251 |0. 048 |? 0. 0023 | | 7 |? 0. 31 |0. 280 |0. 029 |? 0. 0008 | | 8 |? 0. 32 |0. 298 |0. 021 |? 0. 0004 | | 9 |? 0. 24 |0. 311 |0. 071 |? 0. 0051 | |10 |? 0. 26 |0. 68 |0. 008 |? 0. 0000 | |11 |? 0. 25 |0. 263 |0. 013 |? 0. 0002 | |12 |? 0. 33 |0. 255 |0. 074 |? 0. 0055 | |13 |? 0. 50 |0. 300 |0. 199 |? 0. 0399 | |14 |? 0. 95 |0. 420 |0. 529 |? 0. 2808 | |15 |? 1. 70 |0. 738 |0. 961 |? 0. 925 | |16 |? 2. 30 |1. 315 |0. 984 |? 0. 9698 | |17 |? 2. 80 |1. 906 |0. 893 |? 0. 7990 | |18 |? 2. 80 |2. 442 |0. 357 |? 0. 278 | |19 |? 2. 70 |2. 656 |0. 043 |? 0. 0018 | |20 |? 3. 90 |2. 682 |1. 217 |? 1. 4816 | |21 |? 4. 90 |3. 413 |1. 486 |? 2. 2108 | |22 |? 5. 30 |4. 305 |0. 994 |? 0. 9895 | |23 |? 6. 20 |4. 90 |1. 297 |? 1. 6845 | |24 |? 4. 10 |5. 680 |1. 580 |? 2. 499 | |25 |? 4. 50 |4. 732 |0. 232 |? 0. 0540 | |26 |? 6. 10 |4. 592 |1. 507 |? 2. 2712 | |27 |? 7. 0 |5. 497 |2. 202 |? 4. 8524 | |28 |10. 10 |6. 818 |3. 281 |10. 7658 | |29 |15. 20 |8. 787 |6. 412 |41. 1195 | (Continued) 4. 49? (a)? (Continued) |Method ( Exponential Smoothing | | | |0. 6 = ( | | | |Year |Deposits (Y) |Forecast ||Error| |Error2 | |30 |? 18. 10 |12. 6350 | 5. 46498 |29. 8660 | |31 |? 24. 10 |15. 9140 |8. 19 |67. 01 | |32 |? 25. 0 |20. 8256 |4. 774 |22. 7949 | |33 |? 30. 30 |23. 69 | 6. 60976 |43. 69 | |34 |? 36. 00 |27. 6561 | 8. 34390 |69. 62 | |35 |? 31. 10 |32. 6624 | 1. 56244 | 2. 44121 | |36 |? 31. 70 |31. 72 | 0. 024975 | 0. 000624 | |37 |? 38. 50 |31. 71 |6. 79 |? 46. 1042 | |38 |? 47. 90 |35. 784 |12. 116 |146. 798 | |39 |? 49. 10 |43. 0536 |6. 046 |36. 56 | |40 |? 55. 80 |46. 814 | 9. 11856 | 83. 1481 | |41 |? 70. 10 |52. 1526 |17. 9474 |322. 11 | |42 |? 70. 90 |62. 9210 | 7. 97897 |63. 66 | |43 |? 79. 10 |67. 7084 |11. 3916 |129. 768 | |44 |? 94. 0 0 |74. 5434 | 19. 4566 | 378. 561 | |TOTALS | |787. 30 | | | |150. 3 | | |1,513. 22 | |AVERAGE | 17. 8932 | | 3. 416 | 34. 39 | | | | |(MAD) |(MSE) | |Next period forecast = 86. 2173 |Standard error = 6. 07519 | Method ( Linear Regression (Trend Analysis) | |Year |Period (X) |Deposits (Y) |Forecast |Error2 | |? 1 |? 1 |0. 25 |–17. 330 |309. 061 | |? 2 |? 2 |0. 24 |–15. 692 |253. 823 | |? 3 |? 3 |0. 24 |–14. 054 |204. 31 | |? 4 |? 4 |0. 26 |–12. 415 |160. 662 | |? 5 |? 5 |0. 25 |–10. 777 |121. 594 | |? 6 |? 6 |0. 30 |? –9. 1387 |89. 0883 | |? 7 |? 7 |0. 31 |? –7. 50 |61. 0019 | |? 8 |? 8 |0. 32 |? –5. 8621 |38. 2181 | |? |? 9 |0. 24 |? –4. 2238 |19. 9254 | |10 |10 |0. 26 |? –2. 5855 |8. 09681 | |11 |11 |0. 25 |? –0. 947 |1. 43328 | |12 |12 |0. 33 |? 0. 691098 |0. 130392 | |13 |13 |0. 50 |? 2. 329 |3. 34667 | |14 |14 |0. 95 |? 3. 96769 |9. 10642 | |15 |15 |1. 70 |? 5. 60598 |15. 2567 | |16 |16 |2. 30 |? 7. 24 427 |24. 4458 | |17 |17 |2. 0 |? 8. 88257 |36. 9976 | |18 |18 |2. 80 |? 10. 52 |59. 6117 | |19 |19 |2. 70 |? 12. 1592 |89. 4756 | |20 |20 |3. 90 |? 13. 7974 |97. 9594 | |21 |21 |4. 90 |? 15. 4357 |111. 0 | |22 |22 |5. 30 |? 17. 0740 |138. 628 | |23 |23 |6. 20 |? 18. 7123 |156. 558 | |24 |24 |4. 10 |? 20. 35 |264. 083 | |25 |25 |4. 50 |? 21. 99 |305. 62 | |26 |26 |6. 10 |? 23. 6272 |307. 203 | |27 |27 |7. 70 |? 25. 2655 |308. 547 | |28 |28 |10. 10 |? 26. 9038 |282. 367 | |29 |29 |15. 20 |? 28. 5421 |178. 011 | |30 |30 |18. 10 |? 30. 18 |145. 936 | |31 |31 |24. 10 |? 31. 8187 |59. 58 | |32 |32 |25. 60 |? 33. 46 |61. 73 | |33 |33 |30. 30 |? 35. 0953 |22. 9945 | |34 |34 |36. 0 |? 36. 7336 |0. 5381 | |35 |35 |31. 10 |? 38. 3718 |52. 8798 | |36 |36 |31. 70 |? 40. 01 |69. 0585 | |37 |37 |38. 50 |? 41. 6484 |9. 91266 | |38 |38 | 47. 90 |? 43. 2867 |21. 2823 | |39 | 39 |49. 10 |? 44. 9250 |17. 43 | |40 | 40 |55. 80 |? 46. 5633 |? ? 85. 3163 | |41 | 41 |70. 10 |? 48. 2016 |? 479. 54 | |42 | 4 2 |70. 90 |? 49. 84 |? 443. 28 | |43 | 43 |79. 10 |? 51. 4782 |? 762. 964 | |44 | 44 |94. 00 |? 53. 1165 | 1,671. 46 | |TOTALS | |990. 00 | | |787. 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |7,559. 95 | | |AVERAGE |22. 50 | 17. 893 | |171. 817 | | | | | |(MSE) | |Method ( Least squares–Simple Regression on GSP | | |a |b | | | | |–17. 636 |13. 936 | | | | |Coefficients: |GSP |Deposits | | | | |Year |(X) |(Y) |Forecast ||Error| |Error2 | |? 1 |0. 40 |? 0. 25 |–12. 198 |? 12. 4482 |? 154. 957 | |? 2 |0. 40 |? 0. 24 |–12. 198 |? 12. 4382 |? 154. 71 | |? 3 |0. 50 |? 0. 24 |–10. 839 |? 11. 0788 |? 122. 740 | |? 4 |0. 70 |? 0. 26 |–8. 12 | 8. 38 | 70. 226 | |? 5 |0. 90 |? 0. 25 |–5. 4014 | 5. 65137 | 31. 94 | |? 6 |1. 00 |? 0. 30 |–4. 0420 | 4. 342 | 18. 8530 | |? 7 |1. 40 |? 0. 31 |? 1. 39545 | 1. 08545 | 1. 17820 | |? 8 |1. 70 |? 0. 32 |? 5. 47354 | 5. 5354 | 26. 56 | |? 9 |1. 30 |? 0. 24 |? 0. 036086 | 0. 203914 | 0. 041581 | |10 |1. 20 |? 0. 2 6 |–1. 3233 | 1. 58328 | 2. 50676 | |11 |1. 10 |? 0. 25 |–2. 6826 | 2. 93264 | 8. 60038 | |12 |0. 90 |? 0. 33 |–5. 4014 | 5. 73137 | 32. 8486 | |13 |1. 20 |? 0. 50 |–1. 3233 | 1. 82328 | 3. 32434 | |14 |1. 20 |? 0. 95 |–1. 3233 | 2. 27328 | 5. 16779 | |15 |1. 20 |? 1. 70 |–1. 3233 | 3. 02328 | 9. 14020 | |16 |1. 60 |? 2. 30 |? 4. 11418 | 1. 81418 | 3. 9124 | |17 |1. 50 |? 2. 80 |? 2. 75481 | 0. 045186 | 0. 002042 | |18 |1. 60 |? 2. 80 |? 4. 11418 | 1. 31418 | 1. 727 | |19 |1. 70 |? 2. 70 |? 5. 47354 | 2. 77354 | 7. 69253 | |20 |1. 90 |? 3. 90 |? 8. 19227 | 4. 29227 | 18. 4236 | |21 |1. 90 |? 4. 90 |? 8. 19227 | 3. 29227 | 10. 8390 | |22 |2. 30 |? 5. 30 |13. 6297 | 8. 32972 | 69. 3843 | |23 |2. 50 |? 6. 20 |16. 3484 |? 10. 1484 |? 102. 991 | |24 |2. 80 |? 4. 10 |20. 4265 |? 16. 3265 |? 266. 56 | |25 |2. 90 |? 4. 50 |21. 79 |? 17. 29 |? 298. 80 | |26 |3. 40 |? 6. 10 |28. 5827 |? 22. 4827 |? 505. 473 | |27 |3. 80 |? 7. 70 |34. 02 |? 26. 32 |? 6 92. 752 | |28 |4. 10 |10. 10 |38. 0983 |? 27. 9983 |? 783. 90 | |29 |4. 00 |15. 20 |36. 74 |? 21. 54 |? 463. 924 | |30 |4. 00 |18. 10 |36. 74 |? 18. 64 |? 347. 41 | |31 |3. 90 |24. 10 |35. 3795 |? 11. 2795 |? 127. 228 | |32 |3. 80 |25. 60 |34. 02 | 8. 42018 | 70. 8994 | |33 |3. 0 |30. 30 |34. 02 | 3. 72018 | 13. 8397 | |34 |3. 70 |36. 00 |32. 66 | 3. 33918 | 11. 15 | |35 |4. 10 |31. 10 |38. 0983 | 6. 99827 | 48. 9757 | |36 |4. 10 |31. 70 |38. 0983 | 6. 39827 |? 40. 9378 | |37 |4. 00 |38. 50 |36. 74 | 1. 76 | 3. 10146 | |38 |4. 50 |47. 90 |43. 5357 | 4. 36428 | 19. 05 | |39 |4. 60 |49. 10 |44. 8951 | 4. 20491 | 17. 6813 | |40 |4. 50 |55. 80 |43. 5357 |? 12. 2643 |? 150. 412 | |41 |4. 60 |70. 10 |44. 951 |? 25. 20 |? 635. 288 | |42 |4. 60 |70. 90 |44. 8951 |? 26. 00 |? 676. 256 | |43 |4. 70 |79. 10 |46. 2544 |? 32. 8456 |1,078. 83 | |44 |5. 00 |94. 00 |50. 3325 |? 43. 6675 |1,906. 85 | |TOTALS | | | |451. 223 |9,016. 45 | |AVERAGE | | | |? 10. 2551 |? 204. 92 | | | | | |? (MAD) |? (MS E) | Given that one wishes to develop a five-year forecast, trend analysis is the appropriate choice. Measures of error and goodness-of-fit are really irrelevant.Exponential smoothing provides a forecast only of deposits for the next year—and thus does not address the five-year forecast problem. In order to use the regression model based upon GSP, one must first develop a model to forecast GSP, and then use the forecast of GSP in the model to forecast deposits. This requires the development of two models—one of which (the model for GSP) must be based solely on time as the independent variable (time is the only other variable we are given). (b)? One could make a case for exclusion of the older data. Were we to exclude data from roughly the first 25 years, the forecasts for the later year

The relationship between democracy and performance Essay

The relationship between democracy and performance - Essay Example To some governments, democracy helps improve performance, allowing for the free exchange of commerce and greater transparency in the administrative processes. However, for others, there is a strong belief that other forms of government would be better options in securing improved performance. This paper shall now discuss the relationship between relationship and performance using concepts relating to economic performance, political stability, and other elements of governance. Body A realistic assessment of the workings of democracy indicates that the impact of civil liberties in a country is significant in relation to the performance of a government and its investment activities (Pritchett and Kaufmann, 1998). Such finding supports the idea that the extent to which citizen are able to express their opinions in the public sphere has a crucial impact on how accountability would apply in relation to government and its efficacy. To some analysts, there is no clear association between the elements of electoral governance or democracy and the performance of government activities (Isham, 1996).... Indicators for success in projects include the economic rate of return which is based on the accomplishment of the project, and the rating on whether the project was able to fulfil its project goals. Data on success of bank-supported activities are considered determinants of borrower countries and their efficacy (Isham, 1996). This is because the projects supported by the World Bank are carried out by the borrowing country and its government which then implements the project. As such, there may sometimes be comparisons on ex post success in relation to how well governments undertake projects they opt for, rather than evaluating what projects they actually select. Data on bank-supported projects also provide a specific classification on project success based on comparative elements for different countries (Pritchett and Kaufmann, 1998). Most countries do not often assess their own projects, and most of them do not allow their own assessments to be evaluated based on the determinations made by other countries. Although there may be inaccuracy in terms of project evaluation, the evaluations gained are generally reliable elements in indicating success or failure. As the World Bank is a global institution with specific rules and consistent policies which all apply to borrowers, it is not likely for differences between countries in relation to Bank-supported activities to be primarily the result of inconsistent decisions from the WB (Pritchett and Kaufmann, 1998). The measures of democracy in this essay focused on different cross-national determinants. One of these determinants is based on rankings made by Freedom House where the firm ranks countries yearly using a checklist which includes the lack of media censorship, open discussions in public,

Solar System Formation Lab Report Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Solar System Formation - Lab Report Example The alignment different from that when the Moon is in its 1st quarter phase. Where is the dark side of the Moon? Facing away from sun. Where is the far side of the Moon? _facing away from sun_ 2. Starting with a new moon (Sun-Moon-Earth alignment), rotate the Earth once. True or False: All locations on the Earth (ignore the N/S poles) see a new moon, or close to a new moon (that is, if we could actually â€Å"see† a new moon). 3. Keep stepping through this process (rotate Earth once, move the Moon 12 degrees) until you get to the first quarter moon (7.5 rotations of the Earth). True or False: All locations on Earth see a 1st quarter moon, or close to it over the course of 1 rotation of the Earth. 11. The Earth spins on its axis once every 24 hours, making our day 24 hours long. We will loosely define a day as the length of time it takes the Sun to return to the same place in the sky at a given location. In Earth days, how long is a day if you lived on the Moon? Is the dark side of the Moon always dark? Explain. ] 720hours. It is not always dark! One complete rotation of the moon round the earth takes approximately 30 days. Thus, 30 days multiplied by 24hours =720 hours. The moon reflects the light of the sun to the earth as it revolves and the side which is not stricken by the light does not reflect this light and hence the dark side of the moon but in real sense it is not dark but failed to receive light to reflect at a given phase. 14. Choose from: WNW, WSW, SSW, SSE, ESE, ENE, NNE, NNW. For science, it is sufficient to note just one observation that negates this â€Å"shadowed Moon† idea to have the hypothesis disproved. Figure 2 shown below is an observation that does just that. The phase is waxing crescent and the Sun is still up, located in the WNW. The Moon is in the SW sky. The shadows of those trees in the image must point in which direction?__SSE_____ . The shadow of the Moon must then point parallel to

Communication in business Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 3

Communication in business - Essay Example Though we had some problems in the past, we have successfully overcome them and are now viewing ourselves as a socially responsible company that works in cooperation with the society and its individual members. We are committed to our consumers and stakeholders, and are actively supporting a number of CSR programs with the help of our worldwide CSR initiatives. The Coca-Cola Foundation has given us the knowledge and expertise on reaching out to people and communities all over the world. Therefore, on the basis of our own experience, as well as best world practices, in this letter we would like to address the following principles of United Nation’s Global Compact, which we view as the guiding principles for conducting business in current economic, political and social environment: Principle 4: Businesses should uphold the elimination of all forms of forced and compulsory labor. Principle 8: Businesses should undertake initiatives to promote greater environmental responsibility (United Nations Global Compact, 2010). Protecting human rights and well-being of our planet are among the primary objectives of Coca Cola. We believe these aspects of business should be fundamental for every organization in order for all of us to help the planet be a better, safer and healthier place. Therefore, with regards to these Global Compact principles, we recommend that the members of the Australasian Local Network should: Develop and implement internal, integrated into corporate strategy and corporate culture, policies for preventing and fighting all forms of forced and compulsory labor. The companies are welcome and encouraged to take a look at, and view as an example, our Human Rights Statement (Staff, 2013). This document may serve as a guide for developing own, company-specific, set of policies and strategies. It is also useful to cooperate with human rights experts in order to expand and deepen the company’s understanding the issues related to human rights and f ighting forced labor. Design and implement a forced labor awareness program to educate host communities on their employment rights. At Coca Cola we believe that not only the company itself, but also the society should take aware of how to prevent forced labor practices. Though it may be a challenge in some countries and communities, companies should adhere to internationally accepted practices and principles and promote them within the host communities. Notify and oblige suppliers to follow the company’s policy for preventing and fighting forced and compulsory labor. As an example, we created Supplier Guiding Principles that outline the rights and obligations of our suppliers in terms of human rights. This document is a part of all the agreements between Coca-Cola and its suppliers, so our suppliers are required to obey our guidelines in treating and protecting the rights of workers and members of the communities, with which the suppliers work (Staff, 2013). The Guiding Princ iples are supported by implementation guides, which help our partners to comply with the global best practices in terms of fighting forced and compulsory labor. Conduct a deep audit of the company’s waste and emissions levels in order to identify areas for improvement, saving and elimination environment contamination. It is a very important CSR issue, with which we had direct negative experience: we did suffer from groundwater exploitation in the villagers of Kerala and

California history Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

California history - Research Paper Example In addition, this region records the largest number of wild fires as compared to the other states in America. The climate of this region is mainly cool with rainy winters and hot summers. Moreover, it was the home of a great n umber of America’s natives and the indigenes communities. It had unique cultural and linguistic traits due to the inter existence of almost seventy different groups of Native Americans. In this regard, this essay will delve on the political organization of the Native Americans. The political organization of the Native Americans had unique attributes due the lifestyle of these people1. For instance, political organization of a society is the collective provision of guidance to a community or society in either a formal or an in formal way. The natives were mostly hunter-gatherers hence settled down in groupings that matched their way of life. Their political organizations were diverse in that they had further divisions according to tribe, chiefdoms, bands, and states. In essence, the band political form of the organization was a small group of closely related relatives from the household in a particular region who came together on different occasions but did not answer to any superior authority. Ideally, this form of governance was not complex since the number of those under the ruler ship was a manageable number. This system did not have a central political structure hence making this form of governance to be informal. Moreover, communities under the band2 form of had autonomous extended family groupings that formed the political set up. Bands were unable to compete for community resources since they were not complex in the execution of leadership. They had two clusters, one being the simple bands and complex bands. Simple bands were the smallest groupings, which were narrow to the level of the extended families. Ion the other hand, composite bands had larger families totaling to hundreds in numbers. Sequentially, this political for m was easier due to the constant moving of the families in these communities because of their hunter-gatherer state. On the contrary, this leadership was definitive in that it had Leaders who acquired positions of leadership by virtue of portraying leadership abilities. In addition, they became leaders through their ability to influence their societies to act in certain ways. They stayed in the position of leadership until the community no longer had confidence in them. In essence, the leaders in charge of bands were the peace chiefs. They had wisdom, kindness, and abilities in leading the community in to successful battles3. This oldest form of political organization4 was essential in the solving of community problems because the leader knew the ones in the dispute quite well. Therefore, the delivery of judgment was fair according to the community. Other forms of political organization came about due to intermarriages between communities. Secondly, the Native Americans had tribes, which were groups of independent people that occupied a specific region and shared a common language. In addition, the tribes had common cultural practices applied by certain unifying factors. Additionally, a tribe composed of different people from bands and villages integrated in to lineages and clans. This form of the organization was a temporal and formal because of the frequent attacks by other bordering communities. Remarkably, there was no central authority hence making it an inform way of ruler ship5.

International HRM Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

International HRM - Term Paper Example Consequently, it also enhanced its sustainability and competitive advantages among other apparent competitors in the market substantially assisting the organization to retain its market share and brand fidelity. Under the leadership and control of Adelia Adolfo, the productivity and profitability level in Calidad was enhanced to a significant extent, making headlines in a leading tourism industry publication of Yucatan's in the year 2010. Calidad became successful in the attainment of 14 new car-rental sites, which facilitated the enlargement of its brand image and its uniqueness in the market among other competing firms. In addition, acquisition of new rental sites also enhanced the efficiency and profit margin of Calidad, thereby amplifying its sustainability in the long run. Moreover, the management also decided to operate internationally, by purchasing the Belizean Auto Rentals (BAR), situated in the neighboring country of Belize. Therefore, to maintain the varied sites of BAR in an efficient and effective way, employing numerous skilled site-managers has become quite essential for Calidad. By employing skilled site-managers, the company intends to facilitate Calidad in broadening its market value and supremacy among other organizational players of the specific region. Due to this fact, the management of Calidad has made an attempt to recruit 10 site-managers, who will be responsible for supplementing the site operations, leading towards the improvement of its corporate image and revenue as it is extremely essential for Calidad to execute its operations in an effective way. The job responsibilities offered for the position of a site-manager will encompass the decision-making as well as strategic designing aimed at facilitating the company’s expansion and thereby will require highly skilled and experienced professionals. It will be a permanent job with 10 vacancies, comprising the liability of handling diverse types of site-related issues and client l iaisons. It is an urgent vacancy and the interested candidates should possess the below mentioned Knowledge Skills and Abilities (KSAs) along with other personal and desired abilities to fulfill the assigned Tasks, Duties and Responsibilities (TDRs). Tasks, Duties and Responsibilities (TDRs) Management and supervision of the day to day actions of a particular site Controlling labor related issues in that particular site Maintaining vigilance over the number of cars, hired by the tourists Maintaining a record of all the tourists, hiring vehicles from the site of Belizean Auto Rentals (BAR) Providing the customer with every piece of requisite information as per their desires and requirements Maintaining both hard and soft copy of the charges of all cars, hired by tourists Preparation of balance sheets and profit and loss statements at the end of each month Knowledge Skills and Abilities (KSAs) Must possess excellent communication skills in English and Spanish An engineering degree in any discipline is mandatory Additional degree such as MBA or any other professional course will be preferred The candidate must have a minimum of 5-10 years experience in a similar field The candidate must have adequate local knowledge regarding the hiring rates of the rented vehicles Desirable Skills Excellent mastery of Microsoft Word and Excel along with other

Working conditions Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Working conditions - Coursework Example By identifying the normative ethics involved in running an insurance company, and explaining what the company's utilitarian and deontological duties are, we will have discovered the proper path towards ethical decision making within the company. Through my analysis of the situation at the insurance company and its corresponding ethical responsibilities, I should be able to effectively recommend decision making changes in the company that will help make all the decisions made acceptable and beyond question. All the information used within the paper shall be based upon the experience that I had with the insurance company and the decision making processes involved therein. Some reference shall be made to reputable sources online for further reference regarding the content and meaning of my explanations. Module 5 - SLP Insurance companies are in the business of collecting money from clients for their future medical needs. As such, their clients have a degree of distrust when it comes to paying out their hard earned money to the insurance companies for their premiums. It is because of this distrust that the insurance companies must prove that all of their actions are constantly ethical and beyond reproach.

Sammrize Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Sammrize - Essay Example The role of homeowners as participants and victims of the financial crisis was proffered in terms of being appraised and evaluated wrongfully posing inability to pay for mortgages of overvalued homes. The ethical issues identified were dishonestly, fraud, and scam, as mortgage brokers’ interests over the homeowners took precedence to gain financial profits at the disadvantage of unsuspecting public. The presentation, likewise, pinpointed mortgage banks, brokers and the two government sponsored entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that were supposed to regulate and monitor the credit worthiness and validity of all mortgage instruments of private banks, but failed due to greed, corruption and excessive bonuses accorded to senior management officers, despite the impending financial meltdown. In the end, the financial crisis was instigated by the financial system that is expected to apply due diligence and adhere to ethical standards and codes of discipline to ensure the safety a nd security of the funds invested by the public.

Analysis Techniques. This is for my Art of Modeling with Spreedsheet Essay

Analysis Techniques. This is for my Art of Modeling with Spreedsheet Class - Essay Example Among the several techniques we do have, I would recommend action oriented techniques to an employee working on their first major project. This is because it gives the ability to weigh whether the project will be successful or not even before he/she takes up the task. Hierarchical Analysis Technique according to David Embrey (2000) is a systematic method of describing how work is organized in order to meet the overall objective of the job. The planning steps are organized and represented from the first to the last step, in an attempt to establish the order with which they are to be carried out, to produce good results. The strengths and weaknesses of each step in the hierarchy are then determined, to find amicable ways of minimizing or dealing with the challenges before they interfere with the whole process. For one to achieve his goal when working on project, he/she must be careful to the small factors that can end up bringing the whole process into a stand still even at the introductory stages. This technique provides for the ability to assess and therefore work on these shortcomings early. This technique can either presented diagrammatically; this is by drawing a diagram to show the stages of the project from the first to the last or in a tabular format where detailed notes on each step are included. This particular analysis technique is the most advisable since it has more advantages compared to the disadvantages. This analysis technique is economical. The Hierarchical description steps developed to the level only required for purposes of the analysis, and not necessarily the whole plan of the project. This therefore relieves the parties involved of the cost which otherwise could have been incurred in developing the whole process. The second advantage of this technique is that the method is often used in the introductory stages to establish whether a project is

Black Poems Essay Example for Free

Black Poems Essay In the past during apartheid being black meant you lost out in many privileges it also showed how black people where oppressed. In this poem we see that Mbongeni Khumalo uses the word black in connection to all the bad things. He highlights that there is this darkness associated with the colour black and that in the 1960’s when someone called you a black person it showed nothing good and that no one should be proud of being black. He also looks at all the words that start with â€Å"black† and if one looks deep into them then we see that there’s a deeper meaning to that particular word and that it has got something to do with wrong doing or bad happenings. The first line of the poem reads â€Å"you don’t need a BLACK-BELT to write blackpoems†, if one looks at this line and critique it then we see that he says that one doesn’t need a black belt to write black poem and the way it is written from the small letter at the beginning of the sentence to the to the black belt in a big font and black poems as one word this shows that as a black person no one really paid attention to the diction of the poem. â€Å"B/LACK† when one looks at this word and the way it has been written then you can interpret it as be lack, as if he’s trying to point out that when you are black you lack in something. He further one uses the word â€Å"prac-teasing† and instead of writing practising he uses the teasing showing that he was isolated for mocking black art but in his own right one can argue that he was not mocking it but just highlighting the points that were true and that there was a time when anything that was done by a black person was just done and not taken seriously, a black person could only go so far with their art. â€Å"Trampling my so(u)l/e/† the way he has chosen to break down the word soul in a way that one can say he is trampling the word himself and he also adds an â€Å"e† at the end which shows that he can do anything to this poem since it is a black poem. â€Å"Served sausages made from minced pork and call(ed) it BLACK PUDDING† one can say that it was called black pudding because in the black culture the only time that the families ever ate pudding which consisted of custard and fruit was during Christmas otherwise black people always feasted with meat he could also have been referring to himself as the black sheep because he did not eat meat and in that case being black and not eating meat meant that you were a different type of black person and therefore you were out casted and you were a black sheep. â€Å"I suffered a BLACK DEATH at the hands of a BLACK GUARD†, what the writer brings out in this line is how black people still killed each other regardless of the fact that they were all oppressed by the same people for the same reason. The guards were also said to be puppies for the oppressors so that the hit on them could be lighter and that they could spare them their lives. So it shows that black people were also turned against each other and killed each other just so that they can hold their own end. The language that he has chosen to use is simple but the was in which he has broken down his words and placed them in way that one could clearly see the point he is trying to make about black poems. As one carries on to read this poem you could say that this is not a black poem but a poem about black people. He uses a playful tone but at the same time the way he stresses some words to show his point and the double meanings behind them. He also used the words to show what was happening in that time to black people trying to pass on the torch of awareness so that people could stop being naive and actually know how things were done in that time. He attracts the reader by his title which is â€Å"BLAK POWEMS† which shows the way he wrote it as if he were a actually saying it in a Bantu accent, so he chose to write it the way he would say it because no one really paid close attention to the diction and the style of the way black poets wrote their poems because it always ended up being black people reading each others poems. The way this poem has been written it shows well that it is protest poem in such a sense as when one looks at the diction used in this poem and the style of writing that the poet has chosen to use. He plays with associations surrounding blackness to put his point across of how blackness is associated with bas things and in this case particularly back in the 1960’s during times of black oppression and apartheid. The tone of this poem is in a playful but honest manner, not harsh but it keeps one intrigued that there could be so many things associated with the colour black that represent a darker side of life and the poet does a good job of bringing them out and also highlighting them. This poem makes the reader see the problems that the past could add on to a simple phrase or word. The word black in this poem has been separated and put on a spectrum whereby we can all see the negatives that could and that are surrounding this one word in particular. The poet has also made us think of how history played out and he did this not by writing that in the 1960’s this is what happened but he used words that show or highlight the main events of the 60’s.

Criminal law: Treating a child as an adult

Criminal law: Treating a child as an adult A 15 year old commits a crime, depending on the seriousness of the crime, that child should be treated as an adult. Children in the past have been given many but not all of the due process protection that is recognized in adult criminal courts, so why cant children be treated as adults if they get certain advantages that adults get. Juvenile courts have many of the same rights as adults such as the right to a hearing. Juvenile offenders are typically treated as a special group. The courts soon realized that children could commit serious offenses therefore the juvenile courts created a procedure to transfer the case to the adult criminal courts. Nearly all states have provisions where if a juvenile who commits a serious felony can be prosecuted as an adult. This provision is called â€Å"concurrent jurisdiction† where the prosecutor can decide if the case will be moved to the adult courts. Statutory exclusion means that the legislature can require that certain serious crimes that involve juveniles can be tried in the adult court system instead of leaving it up to the prosecutor or the judge to decide how the case will be taken care of. In 1994 at least 13 states required that certain juvenile cases should be handled by the criminal courts. The case of the sniper shootings in the Washington D. C. area involved Lee Boyd Malvo who was 17 at the time of the shootings. Malvo was tried as an adult for capital murder and was sentenced to life without parole. One percent of juvenile cases are waved to the adult criminal court each year. Juvenile crimes lead to more serious crimes. Therefore the juveniles need to be stopped by being treated as adults and getting worse punishments than they would if treated as a juvenile. Both Bill Clinton and Robert Dole urged that juveniles charged with violent crimes be tried as adults, removing them from the protective confines of juvenile court proceedings. Courts are going back and looking at court cases that involved juveniles getting sentenced to life without parole. In 2009 the Supreme Court looked at two crimes (Graham and Sullivan) involving juveniles that committed crimes that should not have sentenced them to life without parole. They will be deciding whether life without parole sentences for juveniles is unconstitutionally harsh. Florida is one of six states to charge juveniles for non-homicide crimes. â€Å"An estimated 2,570 juvenile defendants in the United States are serving life without parole sentences, nearly all are homicide related. Of the 111 juvenile defendants who committed lesser offences such as Graham and Sullivan, 77 of them are in Florida p risons† (USA Today, Nov. 10, 2009). The Supreme Court ruled that sentencing a juvenile to life without parole for a non- homicide crime is unconstitutional. There was a 5-4 decision on this ruling. Justice Kennedy states in his majority opinion â€Å"Gives all juvenile non-homicide offenders a chance to demonstrate maturity and reform. The juvenile should not be deprived of the opportunity to achieve maturity of judgment and self-recognition of human worth and potential† (EJI). In 2010, a state judge in Michigan sentenced life without parole to Dakotah Eliason who was convicted of murdering his step grandfather. Dakotah was 14 at the time of the murder. The defense said this sentence was cruel and unusual punishment and violated the 8th Amendment. â€Å"Long-standing and unchallenged precedent establishes that when a juvenile is convicted of killing another human being, a life-without-parole sentence does not violate the Eighth Amendment,† says Judge Scott Schofi eld who was the judge in the Eliason case (WBST.com, October 25, 2010). An article dated May 1995 states that the public is alarmed by the increasing number of juvenile violence. Between 1982 and 1992 arrest for juvenile violence doubled. If people were afraid of the increase in juvenile violence in 1982 and 1992 then what does that have to say for the violence now. Juvenile violence may not be as high as it was in the late 1900s, thats most likely because in the late 1900s security wasnt as serious as it is now. Juveniles in the late 1900s had a better chance of getting something that they should not have in their possession than in 2011. In 1987-1993 politicians started using the phrase â€Å"adult crime, adult time.† A May 2010 article mentions that juveniles cannot be sentenced to life in prison without committing non- homicide crimes. Attorneys explain that juveniles cannot be convicted of a crime that they cannot control because their frontal lobe has not fully developed. The frontal lobe is responsible for reasoning, impulse control, and planning. A study was done at the New York University School of Medicine that shows that the frontal lobe is one of the last areas to reach maturity. It matures around age 20 or beyond. The 26th Amendment changed the voting age from 21 to 18, therefore most states lowered the age of adulthood to 18. Juvenile courts were designed to save children from the damage that could be caused by holding them with adult offenders. Studies show that transferring juveniles to adult courts is not an effective deterrent of further criminal activity. In 2005, the Supreme Court banned use of the death penalty against minors in all cases. In 2009 the Just Kids Partnership found that the adult court system teaches teens to become violent criminals, subject them to sexual and physical abuse and waste taxpayers money. Problems at home could have contributed to the child committing the crime therefore the courts should look into the juveniles family background. Studies show that juveniles who are tried as adults are more likely to commit another crime than those tried in the juvenile court system. This means that it is more effective to prosecute all juveniles in the juvenile court system. The government should treat children as adults depending on how serious the crime is. Example: if a 14 year old murdered someone and it was not self defense then yes the child should be treated as an adult. Lock up only the most serious and most violent offenders. Kids that commit crimes such as murder or terrorism should be tried as adults not kids that are property or drug offenders. If children want to try to be grown up or are trying to grow up to fast then they should be treated like an adult if they want to act like an adult, like the phrase says â€Å"adult crime, adult time†. The only reason why a child should not be treated as an adult is if the crime is not serious enough or if the child has family or school problems or psychological problems then the courts would have to take a whole other approach. If people are concerned that teens being sent to jail with adults is critical to their health then the Government could build a building for teens that get tried as an a dult and sentenced to jail time. Even though this will use tax money, it is better than putting kids into a jail that may not suit them. Also the kids will get more attention and learn to make better decisions if they ever get out of jail. This building will serve the purpose of the juvenile courts for those juveniles that committed serious crimes which is to rehabilitate, not only punish which is what the adult courts are used for. Since courts are now going back and looking at court cases where juveniles were sentenced to life without parole this means they will be letting some convicts out on good behavior or put them in the right facilities. These convicts that the courts are letting out are not murders but they still committed a crime. That is just like letting a 45 year old out for good behavior when he assaulted someone when he was 34. America is suppose to be a safe place, but if we have murders getting let out of jail and roaming the street who knows if they will strike aga in even if they were convicted when they were a juvenile. If the frontal lobe does not mature until into young adult hood than the Government should raise the age of juvenile court jurisdiction till the age of when the frontal lobe is scientifically proven to be fully developed. So then courts can be sure that the convicted persons brain was fully developed and they were fully aware of what was happening and what the consequences should be. The Government should also construct a document that says that you will still be considered a juvenile if you are under the age of 18, but if you commit certain serious crimes while under the age of 18 you will be treated as an adult. Most criminal activity happens after school hours and on weekends in the evening. Schools could help with the crime rate by offering more school activities that do not cost money to be in or are offered for a low cost. Then students would be less likely to commit a crime especially if they are an officer of a club or on a team that they represent in and outside of school. There are pros and cons to whether or not a child should be treated as an adult but if we do not stop the crime rate in children than the crime rate in adults is going to rise because once those children get older their crimes will most likely develop into more serious crimes. Juveniles are â€Å"different† than adults. Juveniles are not as mature as adults both physically and mentally but that does not mean they should not suffer the same consequences as adults. People always say children are the future but if we do not welcome them to the real world and make them realize that the decisions and actions they make have consequences than they will have no future and will not be able to make it through life.